The Lions went for it on fourth down 33 times in 2024; what was the cumulative value of those decisions?
It didn’t take long into Dan Campbell’s tenure as the Detroit Lions head coach to understand his affinity for aggressive play-calling. In his first year on the job, the team went for it on fourth down a then-NFL record 41 times.
Of course, the strategy could then be viewed as a necessity. That was most apparent in a midseason matchup against the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams, when the overmatched Lions pulled out all the stops with a surprise onside kick and two fake punts.
But as the Lions morphed into legitimate contention, Campbell has remained aggressive. They’ll still fake a punt on occasion, and they’ve been top four in fourth-down tries each year, including 33 in 2024.
But what is the cumulative value of Detroit’s fourth-down aggression? Spurred by a question in the Detroit Football Network chat, I attempted to find out.
It's difficult to quantify the confidence it breeds throughout the roster or the mental strain it puts on an opponent. But we can establish a base-level understanding of points gained or lost through the 33 tries and 22 conversions in 2024.
After combing the team’s 17 box scores to highlight each fourth-down attempt, we can assign a simple point value. For successful conversions outside field-goal range that led to points, it's a net gain of three or seven, depending on if the team netted a field goal or touchdown later in the series.
For a successful try within field-goal range, the net gain is zero if they settled for a field goal later in the drive or four points if they punched it into the end zone.
And on the tries where they failed, particularly when it granted the opposition a short field, did it result in an ensuing score and a net negative?
Feel free to skip the play-by-play breakdown and jump to concluding thoughts at the end of the post.