Lions Mailbag Part II: Was Davis trade worth it, status of 2023 draft picks Martin and Sorsdal and more

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As promised, here’s a second wave of pre-draft mailbag questions.

Q: Since we can't pay everyone, which players are likely not to be re-signed in the next few years? Additionally, what compensation does the league return to Detroit? — Jeffrey Hooker

Justin: Jeffrey, respectfully, it's an impossible question to predict. At some point, I would like to study other rosters that are top-heavy to understand the threshold of how many top-of-the-market deals the Lions can reasonably afford. That wouldn't provide an answer, but it would give us some valuable context.

For the sake of conversation, the top-end players who merit consideration for an extension in the next few years include:

2025: Aidan Hutchinson, Kerby Joseph, Jameson Williams

2026: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, Sam LaPorta, Alex Anzalone

2027: Terrion Arnold, Frank Ragnow

We're on the same page that the Lions likely won't be able to afford all of them, even if we remove the older veterans, Anzalone and Ragnow, from the equation.

But there's too much story to be written for me to tell you who will end up on the outside looking in. A year ago, I thought Joseph might have been on the wrong side of things, yet with steady improvement, including a massive step forward in 2024, perception has shifted.

Hutchinson, Joseph (based on recent comments from Holmes), and Gibbs are three I view as the likeliest to get extensions. Campbell is right there, too, because he's yet to put up the counting stats to merit resetting the market for an off-ball linebacker. Plus, Anzalone's cap hit could be earmarked toward retaining the younger option.

In terms of compensation for losses, the first option is a trade. We have a recent example with T.J. Hockenson, showing what a good, young player can bring back. For a year and a half of contractual control, the Lions got a second- and third-round draft pick. They did have to send back a pair of fourth-rounders to Minnesota along with the tight end.

Alternatively, suppose the Lions hold on to any of the above players through the duration of the current contracts and lose them in free agency. In that scenario, there's an opportunity to earn compensatory picks. That formula has a lot of variables, starting with players signed vs. players lost. For example, the Lions are projected to receive nothing for losing Carlton Davis III this offseason because the D.J. Reed signing offsets that.

In the event the Lions don't sign an equal player, losing someone like Williams, LaPorta or Branch could bring back a pick at the end of the third or fourth round.

Q: How much input will the new position coaches have in the draft evaluations? — Tim Butler

Justin: The coaching staff has a role in draft evaluations, but it's not a significant piece of the pie. The heaviest lifting is done by the regional scouts, who work year after year around college programs, building sourcing and relationships to provide the team with thorough on-field and character profiles of the prospects.

That work is cross-checked by the senior personnel executives and general manager Brad Holmes, ultimately leading to the setting of the team's draft board. That group includes assistant general manager Ray Agnew, college scouting director Brian Hudspeth, director of scouting Dwayne Joseph and senior personnel executive John Dorsey. Chris Spielman also has a voice in the evaluation process.

Coaches are typically given prospects specific to their position to evaluate. They'll also attend the combine, some pro days, and 30 visits to the team's practice facility, offering some limited face-to-face interactions with the players. More than anything, they're being asked to validate the work the scouts have done. A recent example was when Hank Fraley and assistant o-line coach Steve Oliver were asked to review Giovanni Manu's tape and give input on his fit and potential.

New assistants such as Tyler Roehl and Tashard Choice will undoubtedly be included in those conversations.

Q: Why are people so desperate for a 15-win team to make a bunch of offseason roster moves? — Joseph Martin

Justin: Everyone sees the world through a different lens. There are plenty of people in your camp, content to run it back with a similar roster and see if better health is a true difference-maker.

But the reason so many want change is because the unknown is more exciting than the known. There’s a reason NFL free agency and the draft dominate national coverage through late winter and early spring.

Some of the most popular stories I wrote during my first year running this publication were a feature on Giovanni Manu, a get-to-know-you post on four mid-season injury replacements for Detroit’s defense, and two lists of potential coordinator replacements for Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson. Human nature is to be more interested in what might be than what is.

Q: I've long been baffled by the Brodric Martin situation. He almost never sees the field, and yet he stays on the roster. I know he's battled injuries, and it's not easy to give up on a third-rounder. But the Lions are showing crazy patience at a position that was screaming for help. — Devin Scillian

Justin: Let’s look at the Martin pick from a few angles. First, it isn’t easy to find a 6-foot-5, 330-pounder with 35-inch arms. That uniquely large frame was the hook that encouraged the Lions to invest in the potential.

Remember, from the start, Holmes told us Martin was a developmental project. No one had reason to expect contributions from the defender as a rookie.

Now, going into last season, under the guidance of respected and accomplished position coach Terrell Williams, more was expected. Through much of the training camp, Martin showed flashes that suggested he would take a step forward and contribute to the rotation. Unfortunately, he suffered a hyperextended knee in the preseason that cost him two months, and he never quite got back on track once he was medically cleared.

Is that disappointing? Absolutely. You would have hoped he could have done a little more in the second half of the season. However, after he struggled in his lone start, failing to establish trust with the coaching staff, he was relegated to the bench for the remainder of the campaign.

There’s an urgency to turn a corner going forward. That’s not just my opinion but a sentiment shared by Holmes at last week’s league meetings. The Lions could afford patience in 2024, especially with all the injuries on defense. This offseason, the addition of Roy Lopez in free agency shows that patience is running short.

If Martin makes the roster out of camp, then continues to be a healthy scratch through the first half of the season, I’ll be more willing to side with your assessment of the situation. To date, I’m not surprised by the approach to their investment.

Q: What happened to Colby Sorsdal's development? Does he still have a role on this team? — Brook Johnson

Justin: Like Martin, Sorsdal came to Detroit needing development, given the significant jump in competition after playing offensive tackle at William & Mary, combined with a position change to guard.

When that wasn't taking hold as envisioned, the Lions shifted Sorsdal back to tackle last season. Despite that return to familiarity, it was apparent through training camp that Dan Skipper was the better player and deserved to be the top backup. Frankly, it wasn't close.

That's not to say Sorsdal hasn't developed, just maybe not at the rate the Lions hoped. Then again, he was a fifth-round draft pick. Holmes has been so good in the event, but not every pick can be a hit.

It will be interesting to see what direction the Lions go with Sorsdal this offseason. Does he stick at tackle, move back to guard, or try his hand at center? Regardless of where he plays, he'll be behind more established veterans when competing for a role, potentially falling behind Giovanni Manu, as well.

The team is a long way away from needing to make roster decisions. Still, I'd put Sorsdal firmly on the bubble entering the offseason program.

Q: Does anybody on the current roster stand out as a sell-high trade candidate to avoid a bigger cap hit? — Sagnasty

Justin: Obviously, the Lions could net a decent return for Williams, LaPorta or Branch, but unless they secure a viable replacement in the draft — like they did with Jahmyr Gibbs, making D’Andre Swift expendable — I can’t fathom it.

This is a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. They’re not going to sell a stud for a Day 2 draft pick if it diminishes their chances of winning a championship.

The only other scenario where I could see them dealing away young talent is if they have a catastrophic injury early in the season that causes their title hopes to go in the tank. Realistically, we’re talking about a season-ending injury at quarterback.

Q: What is Christian Mahogany’s best position? Is it RG or LG? — Mike Steggerda

Justin: I wouldn't limit his ability to one spot over the other this early in his career, but it's noteworthy that he primarily played on the right side during his time at Boston College. Plus, it's worth mentioning he felt compelled to call his college coaches for film and advice to build confidence before a spot start on the left side last season.

Typically, when linemen play one position for so long, they compare moving to the opposite side and mirroring their technique to brushing their teeth with their non-dominant hand. That makes Mahogany's effectiveness playing left guard so much more impressive.

Everything tells me he's going to be more comfortable playing on the right, but if given an offseason to commit to preparing, I’m sure he can be effective on the left side. But tell me you don’t want to see what he can do in the run game next to Penei Sewell.

Q: Can you discuss different defensive end playing styles — Hutchinson vs. Davenport vs. player X, and how different players do different things on the edge? What do you think the Lions like opposite of Hutchinson? — Dave C

Justin: I’d simplify it to speed vs. power. You have your smaller defensive ends who win with their speed and ability to bend around the outside shoulder of the offensive tackle. They usually have outstanding quickness at the snap and above-average ankle flexibility that allows them to get low when cornering. What’s often sacrificed with these players is mass, which limits their effectiveness when defending the run.

A power rusher is someone who can overwhelm an offensive tackle at the point of attack, driving them back into the pocket, frequently using a bull rush or long arm as their foundational rush move. They’re bigger, preferably longer players who crush the pocket and set firm edges against the run.

Obviously, there can be skill set overlap. Many power rushers can capably bend an edge, and there are speed rushers who can convert their speed to power, knocking a blocker back into the pocket. We’re loosely categorizing them by their primary attributes.

Hutchinson is elite because he can do both at a high level. Davenport also has some versatility, but he’s more known for his power, which is what Detroit has preferred from their edge rushers. They want big-framed pocket crushers who maintain the integrity of their rush lanes to prevent the increasing number of dual-threat quarterbacks from having escape routes.

Q: What kind of contract do you think Za'Darius Smith will command? — John Pentecost

Justin: At this stage of Smith’s career, you’re looking at a mercenary. He’s an older veteran who will struggle to find a team willing to give him more than a one-year deal.

A reasonable comparison from this recent free-agency period is Dante Fowler Jr. The former first-round pick is coming off one of his better seasons, with 10.5 sacks and 44 pressures. That netted him $6 million from the Cowboys with $5 million guaranteed.

Smith played a similar workload, registered 9.0 sacks and 63 pressures between Cleveland and Detroit in 2024. He’s also two years older than Fowler, so I don’t see how he’ll be able to command much more, particularly since neither is particularly effective against the run.

In terms of the Lions bringing Smith back, that can be weighed after the draft, assuming he remains unsigned. If Detroit selects an edge rusher in the first three rounds, there really wouldn’t be room for the veteran.

Q: In retrospect, do you think the Carlton Davis III trade was worth it? — Shelby Ortner

Justin: Was anything worth it when the end result was a premature exit in the postseason? Every investment feels wasted when framed in those terms.

That said, yes, the Davis trade was the right move then and now. The Lions desperately needed a cornerback, and they had no idea they’d be able to land Arnold in the draft.

Davis not only filled the envisioned role on the field, at least up to his season-ending injury, but he was immensely valuable as a mentor to an impressionable rookie with a similar playing style.

Much like Rashean Mathis for a young Darius Slay, Davis gave Arnold someone to latch on to during his rookie year, guiding him on how to better process film, how to prehab and rehab, and all the subtle tricks that go into playing the position at a high level. Those experiences will pay dividends for years to come and shouldn’t be undervalued.

Plus, the Lions were able to invest the money they would have put into extending Davis to sign D.J. Reed, so it’s not like they’re empty-handed after the departure.

Q: The NFLPA has done player surveys for the past three years. I'd like to learn more about it, as Rod Wood addressed the lower scores for the Lions in his comments a week or so ago. …How much attention does it seem like management is paying to these survey results, and how do you anticipate a franchise addressing each year's results may benefit from doing so? — Doug Bradley

Justin: Wood has stated multiple times that the Lions conduct a similar but more comprehensive survey of their players. Of course, we all understand that something as public-facing as the NFLPA makes its results can more quickly bring about changes.

The Lions' actions show how seriously they take player criticism of their facilities. They've steadily made a number of upgrades in recent years, from the playing surface to the weight room to the training staff to the dining space to the locker room.

Players want to be treated well. Is a nice locker room going to lure potential free agents? Probably not. But everything added together drives home a message that the team is putting its best foot forward to be a winning organization.

Q: Roy Lopez has played nose tackle, which may be his most natural fit. But a one-year contract is often a "prove it" deal. With McNeil coming off an ACL, could you see Roy Lopez starting as the 3-tech at the start of the season in place of Alim McNeill? — Robert Gray

Justin: Lopez logged some time at 3-tech earlier in his career, but two things convince me that's not the play here. First, his film suggested little ability to threaten the pocket when assignments permitted. There were some flashes, but he lacks a consistent burst at the snap and rarely shows an ability to transition to a counter-rush move when initially blocked up.

My opinion is one thing, but Holmes drove the point home at the league meetings that Lopez is more of an early-down lineman. That implies they view him as more of a run-stopper than a pass rusher.

That doesn't mean Lopez won't line up over the guard's outside shoulder on occasion, potentially even alongside DJ Reader in some packages. Still, McNeill's snaps are more likely to go to Levi Onwuzurike, Mekhi Wingo and Pat O'Connor, barring the addition of a better option in the draft.