Game day guide: Everything you need to know for Lions vs. Commanders
● What: Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders, NFC Divisional round
● When: Jan. 18, 8 p.m.
● Where: Ford Field, Detroit
● How to watch: FOX (Kevin Burkhardt/Tom Brady/Erin Andrews/Tom Rinaldi)
● How to listen: 97.1-FM The Ticket in Metro Detroit or any number of network affiliates around the state.
● Line: -9.5
● Injury report: The Lions ruled out guard Kevin Zeitler and defensive tackle Pat O’Connor. Zeitler will be replaced in the starting lineup by rookie Christian Mahogany.
● Officiating assignment: A mixed crew headed by referee Ron Tolbert.
● Last meeting: Remember when the Lions opened the 2022 season with one win in their first seven games? The one was a 36-27 victory over the newly named Commanders.
Quarterback Jared Goff threw for four touchdowns, Amon-Ra St. Brown had 184 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, and rookie Aidan Hutchinson sacked Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz three times in the victory.
Coverage from the week
● Johnson and Glenn talk head coach interviews and Fipp raves about Commanders special teams
● How a rookie GM and a retread coaching hire turned around Lions' Divisional round opponent overnight
● Mailbag: A big batch of questions for the postseason bye week
● I don't have an All-Pro vote, but here's how I'd shape the 2024 roster if I did
Three things worth watching
● If the Wild Card round was any indication, the Commanders are turning up their aggressiveness for the postseason.
After leading the NFL in fourth-down conversion rate during the regular season — extending drives on 87% of the team’s 22 tries — Washington went for it on fourth down five times in last week’s win over Tampa.
Not only are the Commanders great on fourth down, they’re pretty damn good on third down, as well, moving the chains on 45.6% of the tries. The success undoubtedly reflects Jayden Daniels, the rookie, dual-threat quarterback who is equally effective with his arm and legs.
The Lions counter with the NFL’s best third-down defense. Coordinator Aaron Glenn loves to bring an extra rusher or three in those situations. That’s paid off in a big way, with opponents getting the job done just 32.4% of their third-down tries.
Here’s the catch. Daniels posted a better passer rating when blitzed than when he wasn’t in 2024. The key will likely be how the Lions perform on early downs. The more third-and-long situations they can put the visitors in, the better.
● Looking at the raw numbers, the Lions should be able to run all over the Commanders. After all, the opponent allowed 137.5 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry this season, which ranked in the bottom five in 2024.
But those figures reflect some early-season struggles as the overhauled unit worked to establish chemistry within a new scheme. Through the first nine games, Washington allowed 5.1 yards per carry, compared to 4.4 yards per pop across their final eight matchups.
It’s also demonstrative of explosive gains during those respective stretches. The team allowed 14 runs of 20 or more yards this season, with more than 70% coming in the first half of the slate. The other four were surrendered in two divisional matchups against Philadelphia. First-team All-Pro and 2,000-yard rusher Saquon Barkley was responsible for three of them.
For Detroit’s offense, everything starts with the ground game, which is getting back David Montgomery after a month-long injury absence to address a sprained MCL. The team’s tandem of the returning veteran and NFC Offensive Player of the Month Jahmyr Gibbs has been potent this season, racking up over 3,000 yards and 32 touchdowns from scrimmage.
● The spotlight has been on Daniels ahead of this matchup, and rightfully so. The rookie has been electric in his debut season. But a quarterback never does it alone, and Daniels has an outstanding No. 1 receiver in Terry McLaurin.
Earning All-Pro honors for the first time in his career, McLaurin topped 1,000 yards for the fifth straight season while finding the end zone a career-high 13 times.
The Lions will be tasked with slowing McLaurin down without top cornerback Carlton Davis III, who remains on the shelf indefinitely with a jaw injury. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the defense deploy a similar strategy to their Week 18 matchup against Minnesota, asking undersized but competitive cornerback Amik Robertson to shadow McLaurin with a healthy dose of safety bracketing provided on critical downs.
The Lions love to play man coverage and McLaurin isn’t as effective against those schemes. That said, no receiver was better at bringing in contested catches this season, and 50/50 balls is one area where Robertson is limited by his frame.
Thanks, as you pointed out above, Lions are FIRST at stopping teams on 3rd down, and Washington is middle of the pack at 15th. BUT BUT - check it out, they have the biggest Home - Road split of anyone: They are first at home allowing only a 26.85% 3rd down conversion rate, but on the road they are SECOND LAST allowing 50.51% conversion. Advantage LIONS!
Defensive tackle Pat O’Connor - will we have him back for the Championship game maybe if we get there?