Forget the mock drafts: Lions' Holmes wants you to get some popcorn and watch him cook

Allen Park — If there was an overriding takeaway from Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes’ pre-draft press conference on Thursday, it’s that next week can’t get here soon enough.

Between now and then, there will be hundreds more mock drafts to consume, with plenty of time remaining for the always-popular, unsourced rumors about an off-field issue that has some prospect plummeting down boards.

Respectfully, Holmes’ pre-draft sessions are the least worthwhile of his annual availabilities, coming on the heels of a typically informative and interesting session at the league meetings. Then again, given the value of secrecy heading into the draft, no one can possibly blame a general manager for being vague and generic with their comments.

This is the fifth draft for Holmes as Detroit’s GM, meaning it’s also his fifth pre-draft news conference. Listening attentively on Thursday, you could sense his mild annoyance with the overlapping themes of the questions, which generated similarly repetitive answers.

Seriously, can we fast-forward things to next week?

“It’s like you said, you’re always trying to figure out what we’re going to do,” Holmes said. “When a movie comes out, I don’t understand — when you go to see a movie, you don’t know what the movie — you’ve never seen the movie,” Holmes said. “That’s the excitement. So, you’re fine just watching the movie. …I don’t understand why people can’t just watch the draft. Like, all right, I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m watching the draft, and get your popcorn ready and enjoy it.”

Honestly, that’s probably how many fans approach things. Still, there’s a reason the cottage industry of mock drafts and pre-draft scouting reports has boomed, enough for national entities to build year-round coverage around the event. The more hardcore segments of the fanbase enjoy analyzing what could be as much as, if not more than, what is.

As a reporter, I aim to cater to each level of fan. For those who love the draft, that means conducting thoughtful analysis through the examination of prospect film, evaluation of team trends, and exploring short- and long-term needs to help you understand what Holmes could do and why he might do it.

If you’d like to skip all of that and show up Thursday night with your popcorn, that’s fine. But all that aforementioned analysis will be part of our annual coverage for those with an insatiable appetite for information about the team they love. There’s still plenty to come before the Lions are officially on the clock.

Before that, let’s recap what Holmes had to say on Thursday.

Trading up vs. down

One of the least predictable components of any draft is the trades. When a team is drafting in the top 10, fans often want to see their team trade down and stockpile more selections to repair the damaged roster that earned them that early pick.

A team’s options expand when picking in the back end of the first round. The Lions hold the No. 28 selection, and in the last two instances where the team has been slated to pick that late in the opening round, Holmes has moved up. In 2022, he climbed 20 spots to snag wide receiver Jameson Williams at No. 12. And last year, it was a more modest move from 29 to 24 to land cornerback Terrion Arnold.

Holmes said those situations were different. With Williams, a lot of legwork went into trade exploration before the draft, in contrast to Arnold, which occurred more on the fly when a player they didn’t expect to be available slid into range.

To put it another way, each situation is unique.

“I think it’s probably based on what the overall, let’s call it, what the talent level is and how high the talent level is in each draft, and it’s also relative to where we’re picking,” Holmes said. “I don’t really go into it as, ‘Man, I’ve got to trade up, I’ve got to trade up, I’ve got to trade up.’”

Despite trading up more frequently than he’s traded back during his tenure, the GM insisted all options are on the table.

“If the compensation is right, and it’s reasonable, and it makes sense, and like I said before, if we have the pool of players that we have kind of relatively in the same bucket, then, yeah, absolutely that could be an option,” Holmes said.

Not surprisingly, given where the team is drafting, Holmes said he has not received all calls about the No. 28 pick.

Need remains a dirty word

It’s fairly clear where Holmes and most general managers stand regarding the philosophy of drafting the best player available versus chasing needs in the draft. Looking to add nuance to the conversation, I asked the GM how views might shift if the best player on his board is clearly blocked by a capable talent already on the roster.

When developing the question, I thought of prospects like Michigan tight end Colston Loveland or North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton. Those are two exceptionally talented prospects, but how would they fit on Detroit’s roster? With Loveland, there would be a significant overlap in usage with Sam LaPorta. And for Hampton, or any running back, the team has one of the best duos in NFL history under contract for multiple seasons.

I wanted to understand the approach when the Lions are on the clock, staring at one of those players being their highest-graded prospect remaining. Unfortunately, the question didn’t land as intended, with Holmes choosing to focus on the BPA vs. need component of the conversation.

“This is where I — not get annoyed, but this is sometimes when I don’t understand the whole need thing because when each season ends, it’s going to be something else,” Holmes said. “Another player’s contract is going to end, another player, unfortunately, might be coming off an injury. It’s going to be something different every single offseason. So if you’re trying to chase what happened last season, or this guy’s contract is up, you’re trying to chase that, this guy’s got an injury, you’re kind of just getting into a cycle that I think’s a little bit dangerous to get into.

“That’s why I’ve been more of a just get the best player,” Holmes said. “Look, we love (Ennis) Rakestraw and unfortunately, he just wasn’t as healthy, so he wasn’t able to help as much last year. But we’re really excited and looking forward to what he’s going to be able to bring this year. I’ve said before, there’s just a level of patience that you just have to play, but when you start chasing need, it’s like, well, that need might make sense for right now, at this time, but we make these picks for future investments.

“We live in a society that everything is right now, boom, right now, right now,” Holmes continued. “I understand it, too. When a player gets drafted and there’s so much fascination made about the draft and people are excited about it, people want to see it right now. They don’t want to wait and be patient. There is just patience. It’s no different than when we drafted — when we made that massive jump to get Jameson Williams. He was coming off his injury. We knew maybe he could play a little bit late in the season, but we weren’t planning on it. So yeah, just got to play the patient. But I think you can get in trouble chasing these sometimes and then you’re dependent on a rookie. You do the best you can, but nobody’s got a crystal ball so it can be a tough world we live in.”

I’ll accept the blame for not asking the question clearly. Still, I feel it’s an interesting topic. The good news is Holmes will have another pre-draft press conference next year, so I can try again.

Deep diving character

One of the biggest challenges teams face ahead of every draft is obtaining a thorough character assessment of prospects. With someone like Marshall edge rusher Mike Green, a first-round talent who has two separate sexual assault allegations that never escalated beyond that stage, I asked Holmes about the process of getting comfortable with a player where there’s even an appearance of impropriety.

“It’s a lot more in-depth and a lot harder than some people may think,” Holmes said. “I do think it’s case by case. In terms of character evaluation, I wish it were as easy as seeing a headline. But there’s so much more depth and detail and research that’s involved. It’s literally — I tell our scouts, in terms of character, it’s year-round.

“It’s a house you have to build year-round and leads all the way up to the Draft, really,” Holmes said. “I have always said it’s case-by-case. Everything you may read may not be what actually happened and that’s the actual details of it or whatever the case is. That’s just it. It’s case by case. It’s a lot of depth. It’s a lot of research. I don’t want to get into specifics too much in terms of our process. It goes so much further than what’s available in the news.”

That doesn’t offer any clarity on what the Lions unearthed in their evaluation of Green, and it was always unlikely Holmes would reveal any details on that process.

No news on the Smith front

At the league meetings earlier this month, Holmes said he was staying in touch with Za’Darius Smith’s representation, and the general manager didn’t rule out a potential reunion in the right circumstances. A few days later, Smith attended a Pistons game in Detroit, and some were wondering if a deal might be close.

It turns out there’s been no movement on that front.

"No, we haven’t had any discussions since (the league meetings),” Holmes said. “I think we kind of left it as that his agent would let us know if something was going on or if anything has changed or if we have any updates, but no we haven’t had any discussions since annual meetings.”

Projects still in play

Holmes has opted to invest in some long-term projects beyond the first round, often on the draft’s third day. Notably topping that list are defensive tackle Brodric Martin and offensive tackle Giovanni Manu, two players who have yet to make meaningful contributions.

But Holmes is quick to point out another project who did click — linebacker Derrick Barnes.

“Derrick Barnes was developmental when we took him and was kind of still learning how to play the linebacker position and all that kind of stuff,” Holmes said. “It all goes back to the right intangibles and who we feel is a good football player.”

So even with the Lions’ roster in a different place as a Super Bowl contender, Holmes won’t hesitate to select another player in need of significant development.

“It’s got to be the right project,” Holmes said. “It’s got to be the right developmental upside guy that might not be ready to go because there’s a ton of them in every draft.