We've largely stayed away from the mock drafts to this point. Now feels like a reasonable time to check in on where analysts think the talent pool is settling around Detroit's No. 28 pick in the first round.
I'm not sure that's accurate, although often repeated. We all saw Sewell and Hutchinson coming from a mile away, if they were on the board. I had both in my final mocks the respective years. And a cornerback last year was also pretty clear. I even wrote before the draft why Arnold was one of the few players worth trading up to get that fit Holmes' checklist.
Here's the blurb from that piece.
"There's no need to rehash Detroit's need at cornerback. Arnold, a high school basketball standout who could have played the sport collegiately, made the decision to commit to football at Alabama and will be a first-round pick thanks to that choice.
"Arnold offers a tick less raw athleticism than Mitchell but with a similar ability to produce turnovers. The fact Arnold's five interceptions in 2023 came playing against SEC opponents should be reassuring.
"Like every player on the list, Arnold's competitiveness is unquestioned and further demonstrated through his extensive special teams experience.
"Arnold is aggressive in man coverage, and a little prone to penalties because of that playing style. That drew a recent comparison to L'Jarius Sneed from Pro Football Focus, who many Lions fans wanted the team to trade prior to the Davis deal."
The Gibbs/Campbell draft was the unpredictable one. Everyone knew the team wanted Witherspoon, but the Seahawks snagged him and went with the backup plan. Tough to predict trades. Same is true with Jamo.
Holmes gets a little more unpredictable in the middle rounds, but I would venture to guess that's true for most GMs. The variables get weird.
What we know is Holmes loves to plug holes with immediate contributors in Round 1. Maybe immediate is more back half of rookie season/2026 with where he's taken the roster, but it's why so many are pointing to guard/defensive line. That's where the team can find quickest contributions.
Well, you are certainly better at it than I am. But yah, I that Gibbs Campbell move was pretty surprising: other years less so. Best available guard or D lineman does seem like the likely scenario this year. The OG choice tugs me two ways. On the one hand, there are opportunities in later rounds. On the other, the calling card of the Campbell era has been quality QB play made possible only by a superior O line. And there are fences in need of mending there.
Amazing how many guards are being suggested and that alone says why bother. Plenty of good IOL prospects this year that fits what the Lions want so why reach. The only one I would consider is Zabel and that's because of the long-term possibility of replacing Ragnow. Totally agree the Lions are more likely to keep drafting for OGs on day 3, maybe day 2 but 1st round, I don't see it.
Agree on the edge rushers, these little guys need not apply and hands off Green.
Scourton is interesting and he might be my 2nd choice, unless Nolan is included. Good fit, almost could have been a straight up A.
But far and away, I agree 1000%, it's Harmon and that's without considering all the GRIT that oozes off this Detroit native.
Trade up Brad, do what it takes to get him, he can take the defense next level not only this but think about his impact for the next 5 years.
No talk of the Boston College Edge?
The more I read about Mykel Williams the more I think we trade up for him.
Great article, exactly what I like to break down endlessly this time of year. Kind of a fools errand trying to predict what Holmes will do, though…
I'm not sure that's accurate, although often repeated. We all saw Sewell and Hutchinson coming from a mile away, if they were on the board. I had both in my final mocks the respective years. And a cornerback last year was also pretty clear. I even wrote before the draft why Arnold was one of the few players worth trading up to get that fit Holmes' checklist.
Here's the blurb from that piece.
"There's no need to rehash Detroit's need at cornerback. Arnold, a high school basketball standout who could have played the sport collegiately, made the decision to commit to football at Alabama and will be a first-round pick thanks to that choice.
"Arnold offers a tick less raw athleticism than Mitchell but with a similar ability to produce turnovers. The fact Arnold's five interceptions in 2023 came playing against SEC opponents should be reassuring.
"Like every player on the list, Arnold's competitiveness is unquestioned and further demonstrated through his extensive special teams experience.
"Arnold is aggressive in man coverage, and a little prone to penalties because of that playing style. That drew a recent comparison to L'Jarius Sneed from Pro Football Focus, who many Lions fans wanted the team to trade prior to the Davis deal."
The Gibbs/Campbell draft was the unpredictable one. Everyone knew the team wanted Witherspoon, but the Seahawks snagged him and went with the backup plan. Tough to predict trades. Same is true with Jamo.
Holmes gets a little more unpredictable in the middle rounds, but I would venture to guess that's true for most GMs. The variables get weird.
What we know is Holmes loves to plug holes with immediate contributors in Round 1. Maybe immediate is more back half of rookie season/2026 with where he's taken the roster, but it's why so many are pointing to guard/defensive line. That's where the team can find quickest contributions.
Well, you are certainly better at it than I am. But yah, I that Gibbs Campbell move was pretty surprising: other years less so. Best available guard or D lineman does seem like the likely scenario this year. The OG choice tugs me two ways. On the one hand, there are opportunities in later rounds. On the other, the calling card of the Campbell era has been quality QB play made possible only by a superior O line. And there are fences in need of mending there.
Amazing how many guards are being suggested and that alone says why bother. Plenty of good IOL prospects this year that fits what the Lions want so why reach. The only one I would consider is Zabel and that's because of the long-term possibility of replacing Ragnow. Totally agree the Lions are more likely to keep drafting for OGs on day 3, maybe day 2 but 1st round, I don't see it.
Agree on the edge rushers, these little guys need not apply and hands off Green.
Scourton is interesting and he might be my 2nd choice, unless Nolan is included. Good fit, almost could have been a straight up A.
But far and away, I agree 1000%, it's Harmon and that's without considering all the GRIT that oozes off this Detroit native.
Trade up Brad, do what it takes to get him, he can take the defense next level not only this but think about his impact for the next 5 years.
Good summary of options. The 28th might might present only slim pick'ns.
Loved this Justin. Good evaluations and the kind of stuff I enjoy.
Very nice article, I enjoyed it. 🍻
Trade up and take the best edge prospect please.
Or just do whatever bc you’re Brad Holmes and I’m a random guy.
At 3235 lbs I don’t know the lions pass on that Booker kid 🤣