DFN Mailbag Part II: Navigating Lions' future cap crunch and why not build a offensive packages for Hendon Hooker

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We’re back with a second round of questions. If you missed the first batch, you can read it here.

Question: Let's turn things upside down for fun. Given the cap challenges that face the Lions with potential extensions, which players under team control could the Lions trade for more picks? — Bob

Justin: It's a good question, Bob, but here's why it's challenging to answer. Championship contenders don't typically trade away known commodities unless they have a clear succession plan in place. The players coming up on extensions the next couple of years — LaPorta, Gibbs, Hutchinson, Williams, Branch, Joseph — it's not like the Lions have a backup waiting in the wings, capable of replacing that production.

Holmes traded Swift only after the team secured Gibbs in the draft. And the team dumped T.J. Hockenson for draft consideration before they rounded the corner into contention. Had the Lions been 6-1 instead of 1-6, it's unlikely Holmes would have made that deal.

The only ways I see Holmes dealing away any of the players mentioned above is if the team takes a sudden downturn and falls out of contention, creating a pathway for a justifiable retooling or a backup drafted in the next couple of years demonstrates the potential to be a near-equal or better replacement.

Question: Is Mark Brunell still with the Lions? — Steve Patton

Justin: Despite some early rumblings that Brunell would become Glenn’s offensive coordinator in New York, the job went to Engstrand. As of this week, Brunell remains with the Lions as the team’s quarterback coach.

Question: With the pending salary cap crunch — extensions for the ‘22 and 23 draft classes — do you think the Lions’ draft strategy changes as far as trading up? — Anthony Kuehn

Justin: I’m skeptical that overall cap concerns would be a driving force behind trading up to secure a specific talent. I understand the logic behind the question in a vacuum, but there are too many shifting variables involved with football to predict how the roster will shape out two, three or four years down the road.

Inevitably, if recently drafted talents remain healthy and continue to play at a high level, the Lions won’t be able to pay them all. The draft gives you an opportunity to consistently replenish the cupboards with cheaper replacements. You don’t want to get in the habit of consistently consolidating those assets into fewer pieces.

Occasionally, you take that swing to move up and get a talent that stood out during the evaluation process. Bonus points if that player can contribute immediately, like Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, or Arnold.

Question: It’s hard to remember, but what signature change happened when Dan Campbell took over play calling in 2021? What then changed in 2022 under Ben Johnson? This might help us understand what the Lions 2025 offense might look like. — Robert Gray

Justin: Going back to 2021, you can only change so much midstream. I’d contend many of the differences were personnel-driven. The addition of Josh Reynolds off waivers and increased playing time for St. Brown, a budding rookie, helped Goff settle into a groove in the second half of that season. The quarterback’s passer rating jumped 16 points after the switch from Anthony Lynn to Campbell.

More difficult to explain was the increased cohesion between the run and pass games.

Once Johnson took over, the scheme was overhauled, and Goff was given a massive voice in the process. The playbook was built around the quarterback’s strengths and preferences. From a personnel standpoint, St. Brown only got better, Reynolds had an entire offseason to better acclimate to his surroundings, and DJ Chark was added in free agency. That was a nice upgrade from Khadarel Hodge/Quintez Cephus.

The more impactful upgrade came the following offseason. That's when the Lions swapped out the backfield tandem of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams for Gibbs and David Montgomery. Morton is inheriting a relatively complete unit that has developed strong chemistry. Outside of injuries, there’s no excuse for a significant drop-off in production.

Question: Is there any update on what Cam Sutton's cap hit number will be in 2025? — Brian

Justin: I checked in on Sutton's cap situation in December. At that time, there was still no resolution. The Lions should have some clarity before the start of the league year in March.

Question: With several new assistant coaches joining the staff, how do you see their influence shaping key decisions in free agency and the draft? — Matt Salzman

Justin: Not at all. Here's why. At his season-ending press conference last month, I asked Holmes how much he needed to consider the preferences of new coordinators when piecing together the team's offseason plan. Here's what the GM had to say:

"No, that probably goes back to kind of what I was saying earlier about, me and Dan (Campbell) are aligned," Holmes said. "Me and Dan are so aligned in what the vision is of a player coming in here on this team. So look, I've been in a lot of different regimes, and under a lot of different coordinators, and I've probably heard every linebacker term, there's a Mike and Buck and a Mac and you're either a linebacker for the Detroit Lions or not. We don't alter that from a personnel standpoint.

"…I think that's the great thing about me and Dan, and that's just the foundation, that's the standard," Holmes continued. "We play a certain way and I think that's been on vivid, vivid display for the past few years, about what type of player we want. So, I understand the question. I do understand the question because I get it, man, new coordinator comes in, it's like, 'Well, I've got to have this kind of guy, and I have this kind of guy.' And look, we scout everybody, we look at everybody, but there are certain core intangibles that, I don't care what the arm length is of a specific player if he doesn't play like how we need him to play, then it doesn't fit."

Question: Super Bowl tickets have reportedly dropped sharply in price in recent weeks. Do you think this is waning interest in the teams this year or related to excitement about the city that hosts? Do you think the Lions making a Super Bowl at some point would raise prices drastically? — Andre King

Justin: The likeliest reason ticket prices are down on the secondary market is the teams involved. This is the Chiefs' fifth Super Bowl appearance in six years and they've won three of the previous four. What's the draw for their fanbase, especially since this game is a rematch from two years ago?

As for the Eagles, it's also not unfamiliar territory. It's the franchise's third championship appearance since 2018, and the die-hards already experienced a Super Bowl victory.

With a team like the Lions or Bills, who haven't tasted Super Bowl success, the demand and ticket prices would increase sharply.

Question: What do you think about allowing teams to trade cap space, including dead money for both over and under the cap? — Mike D

Justin: That would violate the spirit of a cap, quickly creating an imbalance in a league that strives for parity. You don’t want Jerry Jones or a coastal market team buying up $100 million in cap space above and beyond smaller market teams.

As for dead money, it’s cash spent on bonuses. You shouldn’t be able to trade that away because you made a mistake. At this point, you’re essentially asking for the elimination of the cap.

Question: Do we think Scottie Montgomery's kids' snake will kill him in his sleep like he suspects it will? Yes or no? — Audrey Pauwels

Justin: Quick research tells me ball pythons typically don’t grow bigger than six feet. So I’m going no. I’m not ruling out Montgomery killing the snake.

Question: Ben Johnson was a tremendous creator of plays and did excellent calling them, but some of his calls were massive mistakes. It was easily seen. Do you think the Lions have gotten a little bit more reasonable and some of the fourth down and whatever’s calls now with our new OC? — Brandon Kerr

Justin: We should evaluate someone based on their cumulative body of work rather than the worst 1-5% of things they do. Regardless, Campbell is responsible for the decision to go for it on fourth down. Regarding the team’s approach in those situations, I don’t it changing.

Question: Why don't the Lions use Hendon Hooker in a wildcat sort of package? We know that Goff has lead feet, even though I admire it when he takes off. It just seems to be a missing link. — David Wanner

Justin: While Hooker has more foot speed than Goff, he's not an elite running quarterback like Justin Fields or Robert Griffin III. You're actually decreasing the chance of a play being successful by removing Goff from the field. His ability to read the defense pre-snap, adjust the play call, work through his progressions and make an accurate throw is more valuable than Hooker trying to get the edge on a designed run.