DFN Mailbag, Part II: Extensions, redefining a successful season, pony packages and thriving under pressure

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Allen Park — As promised, here’s a second batch of mail.

Q: Carlton Davis is an unrestricted free agent after this season. Given how well he seems to have fit in, both scheme and culture, are you surprised he hasn't been extended already? — Ryan Jones

Justin: Not really. At some point, decisions have to be made regarding who gets a massive extension. Not every good player is going to cash in with the Lions. People who like to tell you the salary cap is fake are really saying they don’t understand how it works.

That doesn’t mean I’m closing the door on Davis sticking around, but he’s likely looking at a new pact worth ~$18 million per season. That’s going to be tough to squeeze into Detroit's long-term budget with the other big deals the team has recently awarded and some that need to be addressed in the not-so-distant future (Branch, Hutchinson, Joseph, LaPorta, Gibbs).

Q: Do you buy into the narrative that Hutchinson will come back for the Super Bowl — Ben Hodo

Justin: I don’t think there’s any reason to shut down the possibility, but it should be viewed as a longshot, not an expectation. That’s a serious injury, and he recently posted a video on his social media talking about how he was learning to walk again. Plus, his workouts with the broken leg have been limited to the pool.

To get from that point to rushing the passer, it’s still a lot of ground to close in two months.

Q: At this point in the season, let's shift the goalposts: What would constitute a disappointing season? — Al Stahl

Justin: At 12-1, it’s reasonable to expect to win the division, earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and make it to the Super Bowl with that bye and two home playoff games. Of course, there’s no guarantee it will happen, but anything short of that would qualify as disappointing.

Once in the Super Bowl, you'd love to win it, but the other team is going to be equally qualified. Plus, there’s no home-field advantage and there’s so much off-field quirkiness that goes into those two weeks of preparation.

These Lions have handled everything that has come their way this year, and maybe the Super Bowl would end up just another business week, but it would be understandable if the moment gets in the head of some of the younger, more inexperienced players on the roster.

Q: During press conferences, is there an order in which you guys ask questions? The voice I usually hear first is Tim Twentyman. Is there a seniority order or anything like that? — James Bashor

Justin: There’s no order, it’s whoever speaks up first. Frequently, Tim, Dave Birkett or I ask questions first. We have been around longer than most of the room, so maybe there’s an unspoken expectation.

I like to ask questions early because it gives me time to work in a second or third question if I have them.

Q: I thought I saw David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs share the field for one play during the recent Packers game. Either way, why doesn’t Ben Johnson deploy them more at the same time as opposed to rotating? — Mike A.

Justin: It was actually more than one snap against Green Bay, and up to six shared snaps on the season, but there are a couple factors at play to explain why they don't do it more frequently.

First, the Lions' scheme is predicated on a condensed number of formations weekly. They want things to look similar, snap-to-snap, building multiple play calls off each formation. That way defenses can’t get a beat on intent. Using a “pony package,” with both backs on the field, requires building an array of play calls off that look.

Secondly, and this is something I’ve discussed in the past, if you use Gibbs as a slot receiver, and the defense counters by matching him with a cornerback, you’ve negated the running back’s advantage.

Coming out of the backfield, against a linebacker and most safeties, Gibbs has the edge. But you give that back to the defense when it's a corner in coverage. Gibbs doesn’t have the route tree or nuanced route-running ability to consistently win those matchups. Most backs don’t.

Q: In a recent post you mentioned that two of our AFC road games were already determined (Cincinnati and Baltimore). Can you refresh me on what factors played into that and when we’ll know the full breakdown of home vs away? — Mike Jones

Justin: It’s pretty simple, actually.

Every year, the Lions play every team from a rotating division from both conferences. This year, they play every team from the AFC South and NFC West. Next year, it’s the AFC North and NFC East. Additionally, they play the corresponding finisher in the other two NFC divisions, plus a rotating AFC division, with the latter being the 17th game added to the schedule in 2021.

So if the Lions finish first in the North, they’ll play the first-place team in the NFC South, NFC West and AFC West in 2025. Finish second, they'll play the second-place team from those divisions.

This year, as the defending North champs, they played last year's winner from the NFC East (Dallas), NFC South (Tampa Bay) and AFC East (this week’s game against Buffalo).

The home/road elements of those divisional rotations also rotate in an established pattern, which is why the locations of those 2025 matchups are already known. The only unknown pieces of future schedules are the three correlating divisional finishers. You'll know the entire home and away slate once the standings are finalized with the full schedule coming out in May.

Q: Dan has said that the team is built to handle pressure. That’s a great statement of support for his players, so they are more able to embrace it and believe that it is true. With that being said, how is Dan dealing with the intense pressure of coaching a team that might be the best in franchise history? — Doug Bradley

Justin: First of all, the team is equipped to handle pressure both because they've been through it and Campbell frequently puts them in pressure-packed situations during practice to calibrate a steady heart rate. Individually, some people are just built to handle pressure better. Listen to how Ben Johnson described Campbell earlier this week.

“He uplifts everybody on that staff,” Johnson said. “When everybody’s kind of in a little bit of a funk, we’re mid-season, it might be a case of the Mondays early in the week and he knows how to bring us up. And when we’re feeling ourselves, he also knows how to press the right buttons so that we feel that rock in our shoe as well.”

As much as Campbell wears his heart on his sleeve, he seems emotionally centered. We probably can’t dismiss the value of his family, especially his wife Holly, in this equation. Routines like late-week date nights and Monday morning coffee that she shares on social media show he finds ways to maintain balance in his life, and having balance is critical to managing stress.

Q: Holmes has hit on everything except O-line (Sewell was a gift from the gods and doesn’t count). He hasn’t found magic in the late rounds like other positions. When’s he gonna realize he can’t keep rolling dice on the O-line? — Dan P

Justin: When you walk into a situation where you have Frank Ragnow, Taylor Decker and Jonah Jackson, on top of being gifted Sewell, as you put it, there isn’t pressure to use many additional resources on the position group.

Plus, it’s not like every position, or any really, requires an heir apparent. How many teams are regularly grooming high-level starters longer than a year at any spot?

Yes, the Lions will need a guard or two sooner than later. But who is to say Christian Mahogany isn’t going to be part of that solution. He missed training camp and is already being trusted as a top backup as a rookie.

I just think we’re talking about a small sample size in a non-urgent situation. No, Holmes hasn’t hit a home run with Colby Sorsdal, Giovanni Manu or Mahagony, at least not yet, but were you honestly projecting any of them to be early-career starters when the selections were announced.