DFN Mailbag: Lions' 53rd roster spot, Hutchinson extension and reasons to believe in revamped secondary

Intros are boring. Let’s answer your Detroit Lions questions.

Q: What’s the deal with the 53rd roster spot? — Al Stahl

Justin: For those who haven’t been following along, outside of the brief period between claiming linebacker Trevor Nowaske off waivers and placing John Cominsky on injured reserve, the Lions have held an open roster spot since final cutdowns. While the team hasn’t declared why they’ve taken this approach, I have an idea.

You have to understand there’s a collectively bargained rule that requires teams to fully guarantee a vested veteran’s salary if they’re on the roster for Week 1. A vested veteran is a player with four or more years of NFL service time.

My opinion: They’d like to use that spot on a fifth receiver, but they’re not sure which one. So they have three vested veterans on the practice squad — Donovan Peoples-Jones, Allen Robinson and Tim Patrick — and they’ll give it a few weeks to sort itself out before promoting one permanently.

Without having the benefit of watching practices after training camp concludes, I don’t have any sense if one from that trio has grabbed an early lead in the race. Additionally, if Peoples-Jones gets the temporary elevation this Sunday, it likely doesn't reveal anything other than they’re most comfortable with his knowledge of the playbook.

You might counter with, “Well, why not sign an unvested player?” My assumption is they don’t want to risk putting a young practice squad player they like through waivers a second time. If another team tries to poach a player, you’re typically given the option to match the promotion offer. But with waivers, you cede that control.

Q: With a different distribution of skill position players on the roster compared to last season, do you expect we’ll see a fundamental change in the primary personal groups used? — Christian Frink

Justin: It’s not as different as it may seem. Obviously, the four receivers stick out, but that’s about it. They still have two quarterbacks, four running backs and three tight ends. Extending that further, Antoine Green didn’t play in the 2023 season opener, so the difference is really one receiver, which could easily end up being equal if the Lions temporarily elevate one of the aforementioned trio from the previous question.

There might be a slight uptick in two-back formations this year, depending on how they feel about Jahmyr Gibbs' hamstring or Sione Vaki's readiness as the year progresses. But the Lions were already in the bottom half of the NFL in 11 personnel usage, otherwise known as three-receiver packages. They prefer a heavier reliance of 12 personnel, with a second tight end on the field, given Sam LaPorta is such a premium pass-catcher at the position.

Q: Outside of resigning Alim McNeil, who else may the Lions be looking to re-sign/extend for 2025 and beyond? — Glen Phelps

Justin: I don’t believe there are any other urgent situations, but here are some Lions players who have deals that expire at the end of this season: Carlton Davis III, Levi Onwuzurike, Derrick Barnes, Marcus Davenport, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Kevin Zeitler and James Houston.

It’s worth noting, Houston will be a restricted free agent, so the Lions would have the option to tender him, but that one-year tag is expected to start north of $3 million.

As for the others, wait and see feels like the best approach. You can let Barnes, Melifonwu and Davenport test the market and ask for a chance to match an offer if there’s mutual interest in continuing the relationship.

With Zeitler, age is a factor and the team might feel better about one of the younger options they’re developing by next year. Similarly, with Davis, you probably don't want to rush into paying the market rate — starting around $18-19 million per season — if you feel Ennis Rakestraw will be ready for the job in 2025.

Q: Outside of QB, what’s the one position group the Lions can least afford an injury? — Paul Van Randwyk

Justin: Probably wide receiver or offensive tackle.

I mention receiver because depth is already a concern when you’re only rostering four at the position. And while Patrick, Robinson and Peoples-Jones are waiting in the wings, there’s a reason all three didn’t make their respective 53-man rosters coming out of camp. Sure, you can survive having to replace Kalif Raymond, but Amon-Ra St. Brown? Good luck.

As for offensive tackle, I bring it up because of the significant drop-off in talent from Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell to the backups. I think you feel OK about turning to Dan Skipper in a pinch, but it’ll be noticeable if he has to start four or five consecutive games.

Q: Do you see Gibbs getting at least five receptions this game after working with receivers in training camp? — @Evans_Lionsfan

Justin: First, allow me to clear up a misconception. Reports of Gibbs’ working with the receivers were more of a post-practice thing, rather than going through position drills and meetings with the position group. He’s trying to refine his skill set by working directly with guys like St. Brown, who can teach him some of the finer points of route running.

As for five catches, I’d probably set an over/under at 3.5 grabs. He’s missed enough time this offseason that I’m not comfortable predicting the Lions are going to maximize his workload out of the gate. But even with 40 offensive snaps, five grabs could easily be in play. I just don't anticipate he'll hit that number.

Q: Is the press box closed off from the stadium? Do you ever wish you could sit somewhere else to view the game? — Jason Harwood

Justin: It’s different at each stadium, but the press box is typically a secluded entity or it shares a level with suites. Because I'm at work, and not there to enjoy the game, I like my setup. I usually have a lot going on, and without my laptop to backstop play-by-play and live stats, and a strong WiFi connection to support the broadcast I'm simultaneously streaming, I’d feel lost trying to do my job.

In terms of the view, I like having the eagle-eye vantage along the sidelines. I feel like I’m able to take in more nuance with plays, particularly how the safeties align pre-snap and the coverage look takes shape once the ball is in play.

If I have one complaint, it’s some pressboxes are sealed in by windows that don't open. That’s great when it’s Green Bay in December, but I enjoy feeling the energy of the crowd, whether that's elation or having their soul stolen by a third consecutive third-down conversion by the visitors.

Q: Why should we be more confident with the revamped secondary this year, having done it two years in a row? — @officespacejk

Justin: Confidence without tangible results is hope. I can’t tell you what to believe based on what the team has constructed on paper.

Look, we should be able to agree Davis is a far more proven option on the outside than Cam Sutton or Jerry Jacobs. Is Davis a perennial Pro Bowler? No. But is he a solid, Decker-esque player at a different position? I think it's a reasonable comp.

Meanwhile, Terrion Arnold, for whatever rookie lumps he might experience, has a higher ceiling than any Lions corner this side of Darius Slay. And talented safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph have another year of experience under their belt, which never hurts.

It’s easy to find optimism in those collective facts, but if you remain skeptical, I can’t blame you. You’ve been hurt before.

Q: Do you have a pregame ritual, like a certain food you eat? Maybe carb up for a long day? — Tim Bowers

Justin: I don’t. My one thing is I always arrive early. Maybe I’m not the first reporter in the building, but always in the first wave, often through the doors of the stadium three hours before kickoff.

Q: Why hasn't it clicked so far with Peoples-Jones? Mental, physical, scheme or something else entirely? — Michael Murphy

Justin: I wish I could tell you, Michael. I haven’t hidden from the fact that I touted the re-signing as a smart move and believed in Peoples-Jones' ability to replace most, if not all of the production Josh Reynolds brought to Detroit’s offense.

I don’t think DPJ's immense physical gifts have vanished at 25 years old, and I also don’t believe he lacks an understanding of the playbook. Often these things are the tiny details, imperceivable to the untrained eye.

Normally, I’d learn more about the situation through conversations with the player, but Peoples-Jones is good at not saying anything meaningful in interviews, often sticking to shorter answers and cliches.

Q: If we were to make it to a Super Bowl, would you make that trip and what would the logistics of that look like compared to a normal regular season trip? — @RSmukala

Justin: Yes, I would go and cover the Super Bowl, on my own dime. What it would look like is expensive as hell. I’ve covered Super Bowls before and you’re typically in town eight nights, as opposed to two for any other game.

On top of the eight-night stay, the hotel prices are outrageous. Even in the ones blocked off for media, they typically run $300-400 per night. Loosely, I'd expect the trip to cost around $5,000.

Needless to say, I’ve called a good friend in New Orleans and made an early plea to crash at his place, if things play out that way. But he and his wife just had a baby, so I'd understand if they're not keen on the idea.

Q: Is Brian Branch the next breakout, Pro Bowl performer? — C Henry

Justin: It’s certainly possible. Branch is an exceptional playmaker, and takeaways are what tend to help a player break through when battling against the established names at their position, such as Antoine Winfield and Jessie Bates.

The uphill battle Branch faces is only three safeties make the roster per conference. Fortunately, the fan vote only counts for one-third of the process. Coaches and players have a bigger say, and Branch’s game is likely to resonate with those in the league faster than it does with fans around the country.

The other Lions player I would put at the top of the list for potential first-time Pro Bowl honors would be Alim McNeill.

Q: Considering how insanely productive St Brown was in 2023, what does he need to do in 2024 to earn overdue 1st Pro Bowl nod? — @JeffMccowen

Justin: Well, he’s going to have more name recognition this year because he was named an All-Pro and was featured in the Netflix show “Receiver” over the summer. Don’t discount that impact with the fan vote.

In terms of production, an increase in explosive plays and touchdowns wouldn’t hurt. His 12.7 yards per catch marked continued improvement, but still ranked 43rd in the league.

Q: Do people realize how difficult it is to get to the Super Bowl? — JW

Justin: Yes, I think Detroit fans understand how difficult it is getting to the Super Bowl, given they’ve seen their team fall short all 58 times.

I get it, you’re trying to temper optimism and lofty expectations, but I believe it’s OK to embrace them. The Lions are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, with a deep and talented roster.

Yes, they could run into bad luck with injuries, or an unfortunate bounce in a playoff game (Brandon Aiyuk, anyone?), but it’s OK to enjoy the fact your ownership has finally installed a competent coach and general manager capable of taking this team to uncharted heights.

Q: Are there any matchups Sunday night for which you’ll be prioritizing your focus during the game? — Zach

Justin: Unlike the preseason, where the final result doesn’t really matter, I don’t typically zero in on individual matchups because it distracts from the broader focus of the full game. It’s too difficult to lock in on Arnold, for example, and understand the result of a run play going the other direction.

Individual matchups tend to get more of my attention when I review the film on Tuesday, but even then, I don’t often enter that process with a preconceived plan. I try to let the tape reveal the most interesting thing(s) to write about. The times that are different, it’s usually centered around a debut or an impressive statistical performance. So if Arnold ends up being targeted 10 times in coverage and gives up just three catches for 22 yards, I conceivably go right to that.

In terms of what intrigues me heading into the game, if it wasn’t obvious, it’s how Arnold handles himself against the lethal tandem of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua. I’m also curious about Marcus Davenport’s debut and how rookie Rams defensive tackle Braden Fiske — one of my favorite prospects from this last draft class — fares against the stellar interior of Detroit’s offensive line.

Q: If Matthew Stafford had stayed in Detroit, would the Lions have won the Super Bowl last year ? — Paolo

Justin: Probably not. The primary reason is the Stafford trade didn’t just result in Jared Goff coming to the Lions, it also brought back two first-round picks and a third-round choice. Among the players those selections turned into were Gibbs and LaPorta.

And let’s not dismiss what Goff accomplished last season. He was really good, posting a passer rating higher than 100 six times in the regular season, as well as the first two playoff games. And if Reynolds hadn’t dropped those two passes in the NFC Championship, it might have been enough to get the Lions past the 49ers and into the Super Bowl.

Q: It may seem premature to ask this, but how is the team's cap looking in regards to a Hutchinson extension? — Tim Swanson

Justin: Trust me, the Lions are thinking that far ahead. A good cap manager is weighing all the potential extensions years in advance. It’s why potentially saving $1 million with the management of the 53rd roster spot heading into the season opener matters. Unused cap space rolls over and gives the Lions future spending power.

I don’t know if the Lions will push to get a Hutchinson extension done next offseason. There’s no urgency, with the team still having two years of control, but he’s a similar caliber player to Penei Sewell, and the Lions got that one done two years ahead of deadline this April.

Be warned, Hutchinson has a good chance of exceeding $30 million per year. Regardless of where you might rank him among edge rushers, he’ll be just 25 years old entering the 2025 season, with an impressive, early-career resume. He’s going to end up signing one of, if not the most lucrative contract for a defensive player in NFL history, topping the $34 million average value of Nick Bosa’s deal, which was signed last September.

Can the Lions afford it? Yeah, they’re in good position to absorb another massive deal, long-term. Where things could get trickier is when LaPorta, Gibbs, Branch and Jack Campbell are due for raises in 2027.

Of course, so much will have changed by then, including veteran players who will come off the books. We don't need to trouble ourselves thinking that far ahead. That’s a Brad Holmes and Mike Disner problem.