DFN Mailbag: Lineup decisions, IR situations and other turnarounds that compare to Lions

Mail’s here.

Question: Do you believe, given how bad the Chicago offensive line has been playing, the Lions will be able to get pressure without blitzing? — Matthew Sharp

Justin: What if I told you I don't think Chicago’s offensive line has been playing as poorly as the sack numbers would suggest? Yes, quarterback Caleb Williams is getting pummeled. He’s been sacked a league-high 58 times with three games to go, but I’d argue he’s as much a problem as his blocking.

While I’m not watching every Bears game, or even most, I can see a QB who tries to do too much at times when I do tune in. He's ultra-talented, athletic enough to extend plays longer than many of his peers and he's inexperienced, so that adds up. In terms of available data, Pro Football Focus is pinning 14 of those sacks on Williams.

In the last couple of games, despite some moving pieces due to injury, his blocking has only allowed 20 pressures. That's really not bad. Part of keeping that number down has been an enhancement to the quick game since Thomas Brown took over as the interim head coach.

Chicago’s bigger issue is they might be without offensive tackle Teven Jenkins. He's battling a calf injury and is listed as questionable for the contest. Any time there’s a backup out there, there’s a chance for a drop-off in performance.

Will the Lions blitz less? Probably not. They’ll stick to their identity, and blitzing on third down is a bit part of that. They like to stress their opponent and that’s a component of it, defensively.

Question: How much more Brodric Martin do we see this week? — Drew Augustine

Justin: Probably not a lot, and honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a healthy scratch for the second straight week.

DJ Reader has the nose tackle spot on lock and can handle a heavy workload. And the Lions understandably trust veteran Pat O’Connor more as the backup with those interior alignments.

Question: Long-term risk for David Montgomery not having surgery? — JW

Justin: I couldn’t even begin to tell you. I'm not a doctor and I don't have access to his medical reports. I know there are degrees to sprains, and if it’s an MCL injury as has been reported, it's an injury that typically doesn’t require surgery.

The Lions have said they’ll lean on the medical opinions, first and foremost, while also factoring in Montgomery's self-assessment. I can’t imagine they'd rush him out there with any possibility of doing long-term damage to the knee, particularly with the added investment they put into him with the mid-season extension a couple months back.

Question: Have you considered doing an away game watch party for DFN subscribers? — Paul

Justin: Watch party? No. I’m working before, during and after the game, Paul. I’m not opposed to some type of meet-and-greet somewhere down the line. Maybe that’s something I’ll explore during the offseason, but I know our little community is spread out around the globe.

Question: Buffalo seemed to isolate Ty Johnson on a linebacker, and with his speed, it didn’t work out for the Lions. Is this something the Lions can address moving forward? — Paul Van Randwyk

Justin: That’s kind of how it works for a running back coming out of the backfield. That’s why I’ve noted in the past that you concede an advantage if you try using Jahmyr Gibbs in the slot more frequently.

In terms of Detroit’s schematic decisions against Buffalo when defending Johnson, I didn’t have too many issues with it. On the first one, Kwon Alexander played the route very well, the throw was simply perfect.

With a couple others, Johnson got loose on scramble drills against zone coverage. The Lions need to be better there, obviously, but that’s not because of a physical mismatch.

The schematically problematic one was the fourth-and-2, only because the Lions lined up three defenders in press coverage side-by-side, opening the door for the Bills to easily execute a legal pick to get Johnson open on the wheel route. There are probably other technical adjustments to address that, but again, having a linebacker on Johnson wasn’t the concern. Ezekiel Turner is plenty fast enough to handle the matchup.

Question: While there’s usually a significant difference in talent level between starters and backups, do you think the difference is less between backups and practice squad/waiver wire players? — Al

Justin: It’s not something I’ve thought much about, but it’s probably a reasonable assessment. Where the gap is widened between a backup on the roster and a player coming in from another team is an understanding of schematic nuances built through practice reps.

Question: With all the injuries, I’m interested in the effect on the special teams units. Do the core special teamers who are now playing on the defensive side play both or is coordinator Dave Fipp moving people around too? — Mark Roden

Justin: It’s both, Mark. If you look at the last game, guys like Ben Niemann, Kindle Vildor and Pat O’Connor had bigger defensive roles, but maintained their special teams reps. Niemann is probably the best example from that trio because his defensive role wasn’t altered by an in-game injury.

Meanwhile, since Jack Campbell became an every-down player, his special teams responsibilities have evaporated.

That’s resulted in newcomers such as Ezekiel Turner, David Long, and presumably Anthony Pittman, picking up some of the slack.

Question: Ben Johnson admitted we have a “older” offensive line that, at times, has been inconsistent. How does the team view this situation? Are a clearly beat up Graham Glasgow and Frank Ragnow better than their backups? — Justin Terry

With our offensive line aging, do you think they will address early or free agency? — Chris Johnson

Justin: The offensive line had a bad game against Ed Oliver, a game-wrecking type along the interior of the defense line. It happens and I’m not sure it merits sounding the alarm.

Ragnow is fine. Beat up? Sure. Who isn’t at this stage of an NFL season? But he’s been pretty damn good most of the year outside a couple down games, coincidentally in Detroit’s two losses. I have next to no concerns there.

Glasgow has admittedly been less consistent this season than he was in 2023. If the Lions feel it would help long-term to sit him a week to get him closer to 100% for the postseason, there’s less of a drop-off between him and his backup than Ragnow and his.

As for the offseason, I don’t anticipate the offensive line to be a priority, outside of potentially re-signing Zeilter. If you’re committed to addressing the unit's future, you have to use premium draft assets. Committing a top-75 pick on an interior lineman would be a reasonable approach, regardless of what the team does with Glasgow or Zeitler this offseason.

Question: The Bills game was lost on the second possession, it turns out. How do the coaches figure out the defense earlier? — Robert Honeyman

Justin: Detroit’s defense has been a little shaky to open games, allowing an average of 4.9 points in the opening quarter. That ranks 23rd. And we know, based on player comments, they approach things with a little bit of a feeling-out process, leaning on a bend-don’t-break philosophy early as they’re deciphering how the opponent wants to attack them.

I don’t have any great or innovative ideas about how to weather the opposition’s early-game script. But as long as they’re sound in the red zone, they should be fine. Plus, given the personnel the team has lost to injury, we should probably temper expectations that they’ll turn around this deficiency.

Question: How do the coaches’ headsets work? Who can talk and how do they avoid talking over each other? — Frank T

Justin: The article is a few years old, but here’s what GeekWire shared about headset communication.

“Each headset comes with a belt pack which has batteries that power both the wireless radio technology, as well as the noise-canceling feature. Coaches can switch between four different channels to talk to other coaches, as well as one offensive player and one defensive player — those who have a green sticker on the back of their helmet are the ones with orange earpieces.

“A team member works with staff and players to establish the channels for each coach, depending on who they want to talk to during a given game. The headset programming and battery levels are monitored via a laptop on the sideline.

“The new system also now allows coordinators up in the booth to speak directly to players on the field — something that (John) Cave (vice president of football technology solutions) had to get approved by the NFL’s competition committee.

"Players, though, still can’t talk back to coaches — it’s a one-way communication channel. Cave said it’s technically possible to enable this, though it would require players to wear a microphone, which could cause more complication.”

Question: With Trevor Nowaske seemingly moving through concussion protocol and on track to play this weekend, how does he fit back into the defense? Which linebacker(s) does he take snaps from? — Michael Martini

Justin: Given the overall state of Detroit’s defense, I’d say there’s a lot of fluidity, but Nowaske sees most of his snaps along the line of scrimmage, where Derrick Barnes was playing early in the year.

Last week, Niemann got 44 defensive reps, as many as he had the previous seven games combined. It’s likely a good chunk of those go back to Nowaske this Sunday.

Question: Do you expect the Bears to emulate the Bills’ approach on the offensive side of the ball or are they going to have to focus on continuing to develop Caleb Williams? — Doug Bradley

Justin: That’s the thing, Doug, the Bears don’t have Josh Allen.

Williams might be great in the not-so-distant future. He has the tools, to be sure, and it’s safe to say he’s better than Allen was as a rookie. But Chicago’s QB isn’t anywhere near as physically imposing, doesn’t have a lot of designed runs built into his scheme, and doesn't have the overall mastery of his offense that Allen does in Buffalo.

Could the Bears borrow some elements of what Buffalo utilized last week and incorporate it into their game plan within their scheme? Absolutely. But the difference in QB style and play makes a copy-and-paste performance out of the question.

Question: Earlier this year they made changes to when press can be in the locker rooms, right? Now that the rule has been in place for a while, what's your feeling about the change? Did it impact the job much? — Mark Petzold

Justin: Not exactly.

This was a player initiative, led by NFLPA president Jalen Reeves-Maybin, which sought to move player-reporter interactions out of the locker room into the hallway. So the windows of access are the same, but the location of individual interviews and all the scrums moved a few dozen feet north.

It’s really had no impact on the job. I offer every player the opportunity to talk outside the locker room. Some prefer it, but I’ve found it's mostly to appease Reeves-Maybin. An increasing number are falling back into traditional habits of chatting at their lockers.

No matter where this settles, I’m confident I can adapt.

Question: With all these players being added to the roster to backfill guys on IR, are there any salary cap ramifications? — Aaron Talley

Justin: And now you know why the Lions prefer to leave a buffer around $20 million in cap space entering the season.

Yes, players on injured reserve continue to count against the cap. So when you’re signing all these guys, even if it’s for veteran minimum, the money adds up quickly. A game check for Kwon Alexander is nearly $70,000. Five games, you're talking $350,000.

The Lions have the space to absorb all of it, but it’s eating into what they’ll roll over next year.

Question: Any chance they’d try to pick up Calais Campbell if Miami goes through with cutting him? — Chris Maguigan

Justin: Could I see the Lions putting in a claim for Campbell if he's waived? Absolutely. Could I see him making it to the Lions on the waiver wire? Probably not.

Question: When will we find out the date and time for the Vikings game? — Lisa Corwin

Justin: Those games will be announced about a week ahead of time, probably Dec. 30-31. At this point, I’d expect it to be a primetime matchup on Sunday.

Question: Alim McNeill should be able to be back for start of next season, right? Also, is there any reason nowadays to worry about players losing a step after ACLs anymore? — Tim Bowers

Justin: The start of the regular season is possible but might be ambitious. Every recovery is different, but Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett tore in Oct. last year and wasn’t ready for the start of camp.

I could see McNeill’s rehab carrying into the early part of the 2025 season. As for losing a step, ACL repair is a pretty common surgery in modern times. There might be some rust (read: atrophy), but I don’t think it impacts the long-term outlook of his career.

Question: What’s your sense of how ready Sione Vaki is to pick up a notable chunk of the load from David Montgomery? — Jeff Koski

Does a combination of Craig Reynolds/Vaki take over 50% of the carries or is Jahmyr in line for a much bigger workload than his traditional 50/50? — Ron Haskell

Justin: First, I anticipate Gibbs’ workload to tick up, but not dramatically. The Lions are going to be careful not to wear down their star dual-threat.

My early impressions are that Vaki won’t be a significant part of the replacement plan. More will likely fall on the plate of Reynolds, the reliable veteran, with Jermar Jefferson expected to get a bump off the practice squad and provided an opportunity to showcase three years of development behind the scenes.

I understand the fascination with Vaki, because I share it, but also recognize he’s a developmental player in the same sense as Brodric Martin. Despite the physical gifts, Vaki has so few banked reps and so much to learn about the nuances of the position.

Question: Do you still think Aaron Glenn will get a head coaching position after their performance in the last two games? — Mark Winters

Justin: I think we can limit the conversation to the last game because the Lions' defense was pretty good against the Packers, despite what showed on the scoreboard. The offense put them in some bad spots in that one, but given the Lions were playing four guys who arrived earlier in the week, it was a great coaching performance.

As for last week, it was bad. A historically great offense came to town and ran through the Lions. Still, it doesn’t alter the overall job Glenn has done all season or lessen the attributes he exhibits behind the scenes that make him equipped to lead a franchise.

Will he get a job? I’m not in those interviews or making the hiring decision. I believe his resume continues to merit strong consideration. That is the limit of my prognostication abilities on the matter.

Question: Will you be attending the Super Bowl? — Nate

Justin: If the Lions make the Super Bowl, I will be working in New Orleans that week.

Question: What's the best press box food in the NFL? — Jeff Zyla

Justin: The state of Texas comes strong. Dallas and Houston have unbelievable spreads, both in quality and quantity. Tampa has also been historically solid.

The NFC North leaves a lot to be desired. If I were to rank them it would be Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago, in that order. If another reporter wanted to flip Detroit and Green Bay, I’d understand.

Question: Who is our starting four on the defensive line now? — Brandon Kerr

Justin: Speculating here, but probably Za’Darius Smith, DJ Reader, Levi Onwuzurike and Josh Paschal. If they add a fifth man to the front, depending on the personnel package for down and distance, probably Al-Quadin Muhammad, Jonah Williams or Trevor Nowaske.

Question: I know you thought we should re-sign Carlton Davis, but does his injury put the kibosh on that idea? — John Mullen

Justin: No. I would say I’m firmer in the belief because he suffered an injury by giving all-out effort in run support, confirming he is exactly who I thought he was, a selfless and physical player who stands for everything this team preaches.

Question: Do any other rebuilds/new regimes in the modern era have a track record in their first four years similar to what Dan, Brad & Co. have established? How did those franchises sustain that initial success (or not), and what implications could it have for the Lions? — Zach Meyers

Justin: Man, what a question.

I looked at several of the top franchises from the past couple of decades. Many had success immediately with a change in leadership. The Chiefs with Andy Reid, the Saints with Sean Payton, the Ravens with John Harbaugh, Tony Dungy in Indianapolis, and even Sean McVay with the Rams, all hit the ground running, making the playoffs their first season.

Bill Belichick didn’t in New England, but he won a Super Bowl in Year 2, kickstarting that dynasty.

Seattle made the playoffs in Pete Carroll’s first year, but as a 7-9 team. It wasn’t until his third year the franchise took off, with five straight seasons having double-digit wins to go with back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.

From that group, if you’re looking for the secret of sustainability, it’s pretty easy to point to the quarterback play paired with the coaching. If Joe Flacco or Jared Goff is your floor, you’re set up for success, especially if you can field a capable team around those QBs.

That said, I think the closer comps to Detroit’s steady rise are probably Cincinnati or San Francisco.

Zac Taylor bottomed out the Bengals in his first season, leading them to two wins. Two years later, now armed with a franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow, they’re in the Super Bowl.

Concerningly, if you like the comp, the Bengals have struggled to stay at the top and are on the brink of missing the postseason for a second straight year.

As for San Francisco, it took a minute to get going under Kyle Shanahan. QB play, not surprisingly, was a factor. The team won 10 games his first two seasons before 13 victories and a Super Bowl appearance in Year 3. Injuries stalled them out in 2020, but they bounced back with double-digit wins the past three seasons, including a second Super Bowl appearance, until they were again undone by injuries this season.

One separator between those two organizations is ownership. The Bengals have long been viewed as corner-cutters with cost, including paying their players. The 49ers, like the Lions, have drafted well and consistently rewarded their stars with extensions. And as we’ve seen in Detroit, that helps breed a healthy culture.