DFN Mailbag: Lack of rookie impact, which IR players can help, TE usage and, as always, some trade talk

And we’re back with some mail

Question: What’s the plan for Ennis Rakestraw? You don’t spend a second-round pick on a player to sit for his entire rookie contract. Does this suggest Carlton Davis III is one year and out in Detroit? — Justin Conlon

Justin: I’m not sure it's necessary or helpful to attempt taking a wide-angled look at the next four seasons when we’re six games into Rakestraw’s professional career.

Davis’ contract expires after this season. It's the same for Emmanuel Moseley’s, Kindle Vildor and Khalil Dorsey. How about Amik Robertson? He’s on a two-year deal, but his 2025 cap hit more than doubles, while parting ways would save the Lions $4.75 million in cap space.

I’m not advocating for anything with those numbers, just sharing information. It’s unlikely, but conceivable Terrion Arnold and Rakestraw are the only cornerbacks on the roster who will still be under contract to begin the 2025 season.

The long-term plan will likely be letting Rakestraw compete for a starting job next offseason. Whether that’s on the outside or in the slot will be determined by how the rest of the roster is shaped.

For now, he’s depth and a special teams contributor, who is seeing a growing workload with those units.

Question: How far away are we from Christian Mahagony being game-ready? Will he slot in as the immediate backup guard? — Dan Brown

Justin: He’s probably not far off from being game-ready. I fully anticipate the Lions adding him to the active roster next week, once his three-week acclimation window officially expires. It simply doesn’t make sense to put the rookie lineman on season-ending injured reserve, halting his ability to continue developing on the practice field.

In terms of immediately slotting in as a backup, that’s less likely. The Lions trust Kayode Awosika as the first interior option off the bench. And with Michael Niese providing center insurance, there’s a good chance Mahogany is a healthy scratch most game days.

Question: Status/timeline of each player eligible to return? Any expectations for any of those to help in Green Bay? — Andrew Talsma

Question: Which player currently on injured reserve do you think will make the biggest impact later in the season? — Zac Herr

Justin: Here’s a breakdown:

Eligible to return to practice now: John Cominsky, Brodric Martin, Emmanuel Moseley

Eligible to return within the next few weeks: Derrick Barnes, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Marcus Davenport, Aidan Hutchinson, Kyle Peko

Not eligible to return this season: David Bada, Michael Badgley, Connor Galvin, Antoine Green, Nate Lynn, Netane Muti

From that list, Martin, Moseley and Melifonwu all appear close to getting back on the field. We’ll probably see each of their practice clocks start in the next few weeks. Cominsky is the only other one who has a realistic shot to return during the regular season, but I haven’t seen him around the building. That suggests he's probably still several weeks away.

Barnes, Hutchinson, Davenport and Peko are likely done, but maybe Hutchinson has a Disney-esque return if the Lions make the Super Bowl.

In terms of the biggest impact, the Lions could desperately use someone like Cominsky right now. Moseley and Melifonwu’s ability to make a difference could hinge on an injury to a starter.

Meanwhile, Martin has a path to playing time, but he’ll have to answer questions about how much his offseason development stuck while he was sidelined. If he struggles with conditioning and leverage, the Lions will be happy to stick with the recently promoted Pat O'Connor.

Question: Brad Holmes and Mike Disner have done a great job working the cap with all these extensions. Do you think they are going to be able to keep everybody they want or are there some young players that they will have to let go over the next few years? — Anthony Kuehn

Justin: Inevitably there will be some difficult decisions that need to be made in the future.

Locking players up before they hit the open market has been a strong strategy, but with Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, Aidan Hutchinson, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, Levi Onwuzurike, Derrick Barnes, Jameson Williams and Dan Skipper (hey, how you’d get in here?) due for contracts in the next two years, it’s a challenge to figure out how they pay market rate for all of them.

Question: Would you consider Jared Goff a streaky quarterback? He looked bad the first three games, now he’s looking like an MVP the last three games — LeapinLion71

Justin: I’d be more inclined to say I don’t put a lot of stock in the first few games of the season, when kinks are being worked out and chemistry established.

Yeah, Goff wasn’t sharp in the first couple of weeks, but he’s been stellar the past four games as the team's offense has settled into a groove with its new pieces (and returning pieces in new roles).

Goff’s still prone to the occasional dud. Both games against Chicago and the Baltimore blowout from 2023 come to mind. But off weeks happen for most players, including the quarterbacks we generally agree upon as elite. The encouraging sign is those types of games have been fewer and further between for Detroit’s QB at this stage of his career.

Question: What do you make of Jameson Williams’ usage before his injury? He is running a lot of routes but not getting thrown too often. Is he not getting separation or is he just a decoy? — Kevin Sandler

Justin: It’s probably not too different than what I expected. While not putting in the effort to track down my exact phrasing, I noted before the season he’d be prone to wilder production oscillation than most. That’s due to both the nature of his development and how opponents would defend him.

Overall, Williams has been more productive than I expected. The improved ball tracking he showed during the offseason has shown up, as has the decreased drops. That’s earned him more opportunities and he’s delivered with them.

Still, some teams will do everything they can with deep zones and cloud coverage to take away his best asset; taking the top off the secondary with pure speed. We saw that against both Arizona and Minnesota.

Because the Lions have so many weapons, they’ll never have to force it to one. If teams want to smother Williams deep, the Lions are happy to run the ball or work the underneath routes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Still, you should be encouraged that Goff never seems to stop looking for opportunities to take shots to Williams.

Question: When looking at film, how has the pass coverage been? — John Gaffka

Justin: Inconsistent, physical and improving. Davis is a bully on the outside, which draws more flags, but also successfully frustrates No. 1 receivers. Arnold is slowly but surely adjusting to the speed the ball gets from point A to point B at this level. That's helping him rely less on his hands, leading to a reduction in flags. And Robertson has also been inconsistent in the slot, but he makes his share of plays, and the communication, which was an issue early in the season, is improving.

The safety play has been absolutely stellar. Branch is a star, capable of defending a receiver or tight end man-to-man in the slot, firing a gap in run support as a box defender, or getting into playmaking position while patrolling deep.

That last attribute equally applies to Joseph. They’ve legitimately established themselves as the best tandem in the league.

Question: Who do you think will be in the coordinator positions next year? — Steve VandenOever

Justin: I’m not sure how much my opinion has changed since last year. On offense, it would likely be running backs coach Scottie Montgomery or passing-game coordinator Tanner Engstrand. I also could see Ben Johnson taking Engstrand with him as a non-play-calling coordinator.

As for Montgomery, he's one of the most impressive people in the building, although I can't vouch for his play-calling acumen. Plus, sans Johnson, I could see Campbell taking a larger role managing the offense on game days.

Defensively, I’d give the slight edge to Kelvin Sheppard, despite his relative inexperience. He has some hard edges, but his passion and teaching ability have repeatedly shown up.

Obviously, Campbell could go outside the organization for replacements, but it's challenging to speculate without knowing who might be available.

Question: With the exception of Terrion Arnold, this year’s rookie class has been missing in action. Any reason for concern? — Dale Schober

Justin: Nope. This is the way it should be with a contender.

As noted above, Rakestraw is contributing on special teams, as is fourth-rounder Sione Vaki. You can't take that fake punt conversion away from him.

Giovanni Manu was never expected to play as a rookie, and Mahogany contracted mononucleosis, which was an unforeseen and unfortunate development. Still, even if he had stayed healthy, it’s difficult to suggest he would have leapfrogged Awosika on the depth chart as a top backup.

The last piece to the draft class, defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo, has played a little more than a quarter of the defensive snaps without putting much of a dent on the stat sheet. That's about what you’d expect from a sixth-round pick.

This is a symptom of Brad Holmes building a deep roster, a Super Bowl-contending roster. There are not many holes that required immediate rookie contributions outside of cornerback.

Question: Was there a schematic change on offense between last year and this year leading to more downfield passing versus shorter passes in the flats and crossers to tight ends? — JFL

Justin: Yeah, the incorporation of Jameson Williams as the No. 2 receiver.

Still, it’s probably not as drastic of a shift as you’re thinking. In 2023, 7.8% of Goff’s passes traveled 20 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage. This year, it’s 9.2%. Throws between 10-19 yards are also up slightly, from 21.1% to 21.9% of the QB's attempts.

Overall, Goff’s average depth of target is 7.4 yards, only up 0.1 yards from a year ago.

Question: How much pressure do you feel to publish quickly when pulling together a large research article — like the one about trade targets — knowing news could drop at any moment, making the article potentially obsolete? — Mark Petzold

Justin: Those pressures exist, but not so much in this instance. Typically, trades are completed on Monday or Tuesday. Once we got past that window, I thrust myself into the research component Wednesday morning and did the writing Thursday.

But wasted work is one of my biggest annoyances, professionally. I know I mentioned it elsewhere, I had been plugging away on a Williams feature that I bagged when Eric Woodward published something similar with more depth than I had intended.

Question: What do you think was the biggest factor why an increased blitz rate last week didn’t help create more pressure? — Zach

Justin: It wasn’t increased as much as you might think. The Lions sent an extra rusher on 14 of Sam Darnold’s 35 dropbacks. At their rate coming into the contest, you would have anticipated 11 or 12 blitzes.

As to why it wasn’t more effective, there are multiple factors to consider, including opponent familiarity, a good offensive line with pre-established chemistry, and no concern about shifting protections to slow Aidan Hutchinson.

I’d also contend the Lions don’t have a great blitzing linebacker. Jack Campbell got a couple pressures, including a sack on seven rushes. Malcolm Rodriguez and Trevor Nowaske also had sacks on six and five rushes, respectively. So it was hardly a disastrous showing, but it did further highlight the limitations of the rush without their Pro Bowler on the edge.

Question: What goes on in the process of negotiating trades? — Basia

Justin: There’s no set formula. It can be as simple as one GM calling another and asking about a player’s availability and price tag.

Just remember, this early in the season, not many teams are willingly waving the white flag. And those shifting focus to the future, and the subsequent accumulation of draft picks, will want to maximize their assets when more than one team is interested. That's likely what we're seeing with a player like Cleveland’s Za’Darius Smith.

Once there’s an agreement in place, the player and his agent are informed, the league is alerted, and there’s a required physical with the acquiring team before the deal becomes official.

Question: How would you rate the tight end usage so far? Are they relegated to blocking only nowadays? — Péter Mayer

Justin: Sam LaPorta ran a route on 86.9% of pass plays as a rookie. He’s running a route on 87.3% this year. Brock Wright is down slightly, from 71.8% to 70.7%. While they’re being targeted less to start the 2024 campaign, particularly LaPorta, it’s not because they’re being relegated to blocking.

If there’s one modest shift of note, LaPorta is lining up more off-tackle on pass plays, with his slot and wide usage down slightly. But we’re talking one or two routes per game.

Question: How often can they wear their alternate jerseys? — Mandy Morningstar

Justin: Three times between their two alternative looks. They’ll wear the black jerseys twice, with the second time coming against Buffalo on Dec. 15. The third game will be the alternatives, which I believe are set for Thanksgiving.

Question: What does a deal realistically look like for Maxx Crosby, Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson or Za'Darius Smith? — Jeff McCowen

Justin: For Crosby and Garrett, multiple first-rounders and probably a little more — and I don’t mean throwing in Hendon Hooker. Of course, that's assuming either is on the block.

Montez Sweat, with an expiring contract, pulled an early second-rounder from Chicago last year. Crosby and Garrett are far better players and under contract for three more seasons.

I’m similarly working under the assumption Hendrickson isn’t available. If he were, either one first, or a second plus another third/fourth, seems reasonable.

Depending on how much the market drives up the price, Smith might be pulled for a fourth-rounder, although I could see the Browns getting someone to give up a third if there’s a small bidding war.

Question: I think depth at defensive tackle is a need at the deadline. Do you think they might look into that? — Bradley Shebib

Justin: No, I think they’re fine on the interior. Alim McNeill, DJ Reader and Onwuzurike can shoulder most of the load with Wingo, O’Connor and Martin picking up the remainder.

Question: Do you see the Lions eventually giving Jamo a new deal or does he not fit the character traits they want in their big re-signings? — @DirtyJerzFinest

Justin: It’s a premature conversation. Yes, Williams is eligible for an extension next offseason, but the Lions can slow-play things given there's a fifth-year option on his rookie contract the team can exercise.

While there are obvious financial advantages to getting a deal done early, this is a case where it’s worth closely monitoring how he continues to mature off the field. There’s no reason to consider an extension now. He's not in the same stratosphere as St. Brown or Penei Sewell.