DFN Mailbag: Defensive personnel, mobile QB issues and what's with the rusty offense?

Allen Park — It’s Saturday, which means we’ve got mail to sort through.

Q: Do you think the Lions are going to stick with heavy usage of base defense against a mobile QB in Murray or counter with more speed? — Anthony Kuehn

Q: Related to the question on the base defense, do you think Brian Branch will play down in the box a bit more? — Paul Van Randwyk

Justin: It’s been a fascinating start for Detroit’s schematic deployment of the team's defensive personnel. While I don’t have quick access to the percentages, they’ve been playing far less nickel to start the year. It's even more interesting when you consider opponents have utilized 11 personnel, a.k.a. three-wide sets, almost exclusively.

And while I have no idea if coordinator Aaron Glenn might unexpectedly switch things up against the Cardinals, my educated guess would be no. That’s because Detroit’s linebackers are all pretty athletic and Branch is more than capable of rolling down into the slot to cover a third receiver, if the coverage call requires it.

Branch did play more in the box during the opener to counter the Rams’ ability to make hay on the ground. I would anticipate a shift back to that strategy this week to combat the presence of James Connor, but maybe not as much as Week 1, because DJ Reader's return to action lessens the need for additional support.

Q: I was wondering about the uptick in Malcolm Rodriguez’s playing time. By all accounts, Jack Campbell was supposed to be that three-down guy, but it seems like he’s been subbing out quite a bit. — Brian Darga

Justin: You’re right on all accounts. I also anticipated Campbell’s workload going up this year, but he’s conceding playing time to Rodriguez.

I admittedly don’t have a full grasp on that rotation, but it’s felt like the Lions are a little more comfortable with Rodriguez — a former college safety — in more obvious passing situations.

Campbell’s still a young, developing player. We take that for granted sometimes, especially with the added expectations attached to being a first-round pick. That said, I’ve always thought Rodriguez was a good player deserving of a role, so it’s a silver lining to the situation.

Q: Amik Robertson has not looked good. Any changes being considered to compensate? — auditorinfit637287

Justin: I think we have to agree to disagree on this point. In the opener, it felt like Robertson was lagging with some of the communication and switches attached to defending bunch formations, but he was sharper in Week 2, even if he logged just 18 defensive snaps.

Overall, the sample size is too small to make any declarative statements, either way. Still, I don’t see the need for a change when he’s only given up two receptions for 39 yards on five targets.

Q: I was wondering the reason why that last pass by Goff against the Buccaneers got ditched into the ground? I thought I saw Sam Laporta one-on-one in the end zone. — Brandon Kerr

Justin: Two points here, Brandon.

First, I have no reason to believe the throw was intentionally left short. It was an execution error in a game filled with them, not just for the QB. There was also some interior pressure that affected Goff’s follow-through.

Based on the way the parts were moving, it was probably going to be a hook-and-ladder from Tom Kennedy to Kalif Raymond. Would it have worked? I would have loved to have found out.

As for LaPorta, there were three Bucs between him and the goal line and he was 10 yards short of the end zone at the time of the throw. Even if he had been one-on-one, as the broadcast angle might have suggested, he wasn’t part of the read progression. The play was designed for him to funnel attention away from Raymond, creating as much space as possible for the speedy receiver to make something happen with the ball in his hands.

Q: Terrion Arnold right now vs. Darius Slay, at the same point in his career: What are the similarities and differences and who would you have hitched your horse to if this was all you had seen of both? — James Phelan

Justin: Arnold is noticeably ahead of Slay at this early stage in their careers. Where they’re similar is the athleticism and the confidence. Plus, both struggled with being too handsy, which is common for young cornerbacks who are sticky enough to be in a position to hand-fight through the latter stages of routes.

I’d say Arnold is much closer to getting over the hump because his footwork, awareness and football IQ are more advanced than Slay’s as a rookie. It wasn’t until his second season, after a summer of working with Rod Woodson, that Slay started to put his toolset together.

Q: Why is Goff under throwing so many passes? — Trent

Q: Goff seems unsettled and uncomfortable in the first two games. Is any QB on a title contending team as dependent on his offensive line to have success? — Justin Conlon

Justin: I’d agree that Goff hasn’t settled into a groove quite yet, but I don’t think there’s any reason to sound alarms. Misfires, short or otherwise, can be caused by several factors: Timing could be off, pressure can alter mechanics, and sometimes the receiver runs the route incorrectly.

As for Goff’s reliance on his offensive line, that’s the nature of being a true pocket passer. If we ranked the league’s QBs, he’s probably bottom-five in mobility. He’s more of a rhythm passer, with accuracy to all depths, particularly within 20 yards, and decision-making that’s steadily improved during his time in Detroit.

But yes, if he’s pressured, the success rate drops in a hurry. He’ll never be able to consistently extend plays with his feet like Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray. Disrupting Goff’s rhythm is how you beat him.

Q: Did anyone ask DC why they kicked the FG on 4th down on the 3 yard line? — Tom Voinaroski

Justin: No, it didn’t come up. While I don't like to assume anything, the decision felt justified. It was early in the game, and the Bucs’ coverage had caused problems on first and third down. Plus, that defense has established dominance in the red zone going back to last season.

There was no reason to give away momentum for free at that point of the game. I had no problem with taking the easy points.

Q: Are the Lions going to get back to basics this week and run the football? — Joseph Buck

Justin: I wouldn’t say they’d drifted too far from them last week, despite the lopsided pass-to-run ratio. They tried to run the ball, but found themselves slamming into a brick wall. And it was hardly an unusual strategy to use the quick-passing game to serve as a surrogate to the ground game.

The bigger problem was a steady breakdown in fundamentals, leading to inconsistent execution.

Q: What is Jack Fox's career passer rating? — Mary Lamos

Justin: A smooth 117.5. And it would be even better had running back Godwin Igwebuike not let a perfect pass slip through his hands a couple of years back.

Q: What's your thoughts on Brad Holmes’ strategy on paying big prices for developmental projects, specifically Brodric Martin and Giovanni Manu? — Aaron Sturgill

Justin: Colleague Colton Pouncey has called these moves “heat checks” for Holmes. The Lions GM has been so good at adding talent in the draft that he’s flexing his and his staff’s ability to identify raw prospects with desired intangibles and unquestionable athletic traits, even if it might take a couple of years to develop them.

It’s too early to judge either pick. I thought Martin was making some quality strides toward contribution before an injury landed him on injured reserve. Manu, on the other hand, is pretty far away from seeing the field, but it's difficult to deny the upside. He looks like he was made in a lab.

With the trade for Manu, there’s not much difference between an early fourth-rounder now and what we expect to be a late third-round selection next year. But with Martin, I understand some of the hand-wringing that comes with giving up three selections to get one, if only because of Holmes’ overall success rate in the draft. There's a justifiable feeling of it being an unnecessary risk. Still, if he truly believes in the talent, the GM has earned some leeway to shoot his shot.

And if it ends up being an error, that’s a spot where it’s easier to stomach. You’d much rather Holmes overvalued a third-round pick than whiffed in the first round or overcommitted a ton of cap space to a poor fit that doesn’t pan out.

Q: How much of a connection, if any, do you think there is between the offense's slow start and not playing any snaps in preseason games? — Denny Krahe

Justin: Almost none, particularly given the continuity with the personnel and the coaching staff. If the Lions were incorporating more new pieces, or a new scheme with new verbiage, those vanilla reps in the preseason would be valuable to getting on the same page.

Q: Equanimeous St. Brown is 6-foot-5, has a strong work ethic and played for Green Bay and Chicago. He’s currently available on New Orleans practice squad. Why aren't the Lions interested? — Robert Szukala

Justin: The decision-makers don’t typically discuss why they don’t want a player. That could turn into an endless conversation, plus, pointing out those reasons publicly probably wouldn’t be good for business.

We do know, because Equanimeous said as much on his podcast with his brother, that the Lions didn’t show interest in free agency. At the time, the Lions were focused on retaining their own pieces, Josh Reynolds and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

We know how that worked out.

Currently, they have Tim Patrick filling that role as a big-bodied X receiver, and despite missing the past two seasons with injuries, he’s a better player and fit than the second St. Brown brother.

Q: Small sample sizes are the nature of the NFL. While fans can ride the roller coaster, how do you try to assess whether something is a trend vs. an aberration? — Zach

Justin: If something shows up consistently through four games, or roughly a quarter of a season, that’s the starting point for identifying a trend. If you hit a half season and you’re still seeing repeated results — good or bad — that solidifies it.

Q: Campbell mentioned the Lions haven't played their best game yet, which is obviously true. Just wondering which game from last year you would say was an example of this team showing off their best? — Jamelle Cooper

Justin: The closest was probably Denver.

While you don’t love the Lions punting their first three possessions, they went on to score five consecutive touchdowns, jumping out to a 21-0 lead at the half, which never dipped below 14 points.

Goff threw five touchdowns and had a 134.6 passer rating, the running backs averaged 6.6 yards per carry, the offense went 6-for-6 in the red zone, the team committed just two penalties, and the Lions didn't turn the ball over in the 42-17 victory.

Q: Why did Branch fall to the second round of the draft? — David Cords

Justin: It’s a positional value issue. While I find it inexplicable, the league simply doesn’t view safety as a premium position. Every once in a while, you’ll see one with elite size and athletic traits come off the board in the first 10 or 15 picks, but Branch was undersized and a relatively average athlete.

Even with his versatility, instincts and college production, those other factors were overriding, allowing him to fall into the Lions’ lap.

Q: Is there something to be said of the risk of keeping the same play caller too long? Either complacency or trying too hard to top yourself. — Scott_D

Justin: Like most things, it’s probably a case-by-case conversation. Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and Matt LaFleur seem to be doing fine years into their tenures.

I think it's dependent on a lot of variables, none of which trumps talent. But sustained success also comes with schematic flexibility to your pieces, your ability to connect with the roster to maintain buy-in, and the creativity to solve problems game-to-game and season-to-season.

Q: If Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw are both inactive Sunday is Kindle Vildor in line to start opposite Carlton Davis? — Glen Phelps

Justin: The good news is Arnold looks good to go for Arizona, despite being listed as questionable after missing two practices with a stomach bug. But, yes, when those two are out, last week points to Vildor being the next man up on the depth chart.

Q: The Lions and mobile QBs, is it real thing or does everyone seem to struggle with them? — MC

Justin: I don’t want to make a blanket statement about all 32 teams, but look at the career game logs for Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Justin Fields and some of the other run-heavy quarterbacks and you’ll see a lot of different opponents giving up 75 or more yards.

On my glance through some of that data, one defense that showed up often was San Francisco, but when you consider how aggressively they attack up front under former Lions defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, it makes a little more sense. An aggressive pass rush tends to lead to more escape lanes. You can say that about the Lions, too.

The better teams at containing dual-threat QBs likely play more 3-4 with great run-and-strike linebackers.

Fields obviously exaggerated Detroit’s defensive struggles against mobile QBs last year, but Mayfield’s success in Week 2 was inflated by the situational impact of his runs. In the end, he only gained 35 yards on the ground, which is less impressive when you consider he was sacked five times.

I won’t tell you it’s not an area of concern for the Lions, but it’s not as glaring as some would make it seem. Every opponent has to be on their P's and Q's against a rare talent like Murray, who will happily make you pay if you give him a lane.

Q: We heard coach say Tim Patrick’s roll will increase, but sounds like Isaiah Williams is due back soon too. How do you see the WR room shaking out past St. Brown and Jameson Williams? — Lions Main

Justin: Ever since watching Patrick’s tape, I believed he would snatch the No. 3 receiver job if he proved to be healthy and was able to quickly grasp Detroit's scheme. That’s proving true and I anticipate him solidifying his role in the coming weeks.

Kalif Raymond will pick up the scraps, as he’s done the past two seasons, while Williams likely won’t see much playing time without an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. He earned his spot on the roster with a stellar preseason, but as a slot-first option, the undrafted rookie's skill set is redundant to what St. Brown and Raymond bring to the table.