DFN Lions mailbag: Za'Darius Smith beyond 2024 and where Sam LaPorta's targets are going

Welcome to another mailbag. A lot of great questions this week, so let’s get right to them.

Q: What do you need to see from Za’Darius Smith to keep him and his contract in Detroit next year? — John Heintz

Justin: That’s a good question, John. It’s going to be a mix of culture fit and production. The initial impressions have been strong, but let’s see how he meshes with his teammates and coaches over the next two or three months.

In terms of production, you want to see a steady execution of Detroit’s rush style, leading a decent amount of pressure and a handful of sacks, all while helping stabilize the run defense that's been shaky the past few weeks.

At this stage in his career, Smith’s ceiling isn’t as high as Marcus Davenport’s in Detroit's scheme, but there’s little question Smith is more likely to be available. The Lions will need someone opposite Hutchinson next season, and while an $11 million cap hit (spread over 2025/26) isn’t cheap, it’s a reasonable price tag for the role if Smith can continue to produce at the levels he was in Cleveland.

Q: What’s your take on Washington? Legit NFC team or have they beat up on the weaker parts of their schedule? — Mike W

Justin: I think it can be both. You’d probably find most good teams build their records on the backs of bad opponents. Four of the Commanders’ seven wins have come against Carolina, Cleveland, and the New York Giants, twice.

But they’ve also fared well against some of the better competition they faced. Only Tampa Bay, in the season opener, handled Washington with ease. But how much can we really make of the first game of the year, with new coaches, schemes and players, including a rookie QB making his debut?

I absolutely believe the Commanders’ high-scoring offense is legit. QB Jayden Daniels and coordinator Kliff Kingsbury appear to be a good match, and the operation is boosted by quality weapons like Brian Robinson Jr. and Terry McLaurin.

Defensively, they’re not as dynamic, but they’re getting solid contributions from several veterans they added in free agency. That’s a credit to coach Dan Quinn, who I’ve always thought was underrated. He's a strong motivator and manager of people beyond his schematic accument.

They’re probably a year away from more serious contention, but it looks like Daniels has superstar potential.

Q: Does Dan Campbell have enough input with the offense, or do we have to worry when Ben Johnson leaves? — Daniel

Justin: Dan is not just some pretty face with unlimited soundbites. Your coach knows ball.

Campbell is heavily involved in shaping the offensive identity, and while the scheme and play-calling are Johnson’s purview, Campbell has his fingerprints on all of it.

If and when Johnson leaves for a head coaching job, it would be foolish to suggest you shouldn't be concerned about a drop-off. But there’s also no way to predict where the Lions go next. Scottie Montgomery or Tanner Engstrand could get the in-house bump, or the team could snap up someone from outside the organization who may or may not be available currently.

I wouldn’t call it likely, but I also can’t rule out Campbell choosing to call plays.

Q: How involved are players when they go on injured reserve? Are there set expectations/requirements for participating in meetings, etc.? Does everybody always rehab at the facilities? — Jeff Guynn

Justin: Each situation is unique and often tied to a player’s future with the franchise, but most players out long-term are given the option to rehab with the team or back home. When a player is under a longer-term contract, that’s usually impetus to stick around.

I’m always intrigued by the guys who stick around when they aren’t required or expected to go that route. Emmanuel Moseley was one of those guys last year. He was a big help to the younger cornerbacks in the meeting room, which I believe was a factor in the team's decision to bring him back in 2024.

A little bit of a teaser here, but I had a conversation with a player in a similar situation this week — on an expiring deal, done for the year, but rehabbing with the team. I’m tucking that one away for a lull, maybe after one of the Thursday games later this month.

Q: Would love to read an analysis on Jack Campbell's progress this year, along with any opinions on his ceiling. — Substack user

Justin: Get a better username, man.

A deeper dive into Campbell's second season is probably an offseason project. It would be a big undertaking. My initial impression from my week-to-week tape study is he continues to be outstanding against the run but inconsistent in coverage. I was reasonably stunned to see PFF has graded him so well in that area. I’d argue one of his biggest opportunities for growth is trusting his eyes and reacting quicker when in zone coverage.

In terms of his ceiling, I’m not sure how much better Campbell can get in coverage with time, but Derrick Barnes made significant strides with experience and growth in his conceptual understanding of the scheme. Campbell has all the physical gifts you dream about for his position, started with a better foundation, and possesses the football character required to match Barnes’ growth.

Q: Hypothetically, how far into the season would the Lions need to go before you’d feel comfortable buying Super Bowl tickets and making travel arrangements? — Mark Petzold

Justin: If I were a fan with the means to make that trip, I’d strongly consider buying tickets and booking refundable airfare and a hotel once the team captures the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

From there, if they were to stumble, you could cancel the travel and probably be able to recoup most, if not all your ticket costs on the secondary market.

Q: What do you think the Lions do at right guard next year? — PJ

Justin: It’s not a simple prediction, but I recently laid out the various scenarios in a “Thoughts to End the Week” post.

One option is re-signing Kevin Zeitler. He’s been a good fit, on and off the field, and he continues to play at a high level despite barreling toward his 35th birthday.

That’s also the most expensive option.

Alternatively, the Lions could hold an open competition between Christian Mahogany, Colby Sorsdal and Netane Muti, who was having a strong training camp before suffering a season-ending injury. I'm confident he’ll be brought back on a futures deal in 2025.

There’s also Door No. 3, snagging a plug-and-play interior lineman in the first three or four rounds of the draft.

Q: General manager Brad Holmes and the Lions seem to have a long-term plan for signing and retaining their homegrown talent, but they keep drafting studs. Is there a breaking point with the salary cap coming up? — Matt Hunter

Justin: Probably, but an NFL roster changes so much each offseason that it’s difficult to tell you how things will look in two years. I bring up that timeframe intentionally because it's when the Lions could first run into some trouble as QB Jared Goff’s cap number balloons to nearly $70 million and Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Alim McNeill each carry hits of at least $28 million.

That overlaps with needing to re-sign Aidan Hutchinson, Kerby Joseph, and, potentially, Jameson Williams. There will be the opportunity to restructure some of the aforementioned deals, but you’re just kicking those cap obligations down the road, in that hypothetical.

Consistently drafting guys who develop into stars is an awesome problem to have, but, yeah, it will probably catch up to the Lions at some point, in the sense they’ll be priced out of what they can pay to keep their own.

Q: What do you think is going well with DFN so far? What are your challenges? Anything you wish was going better? — MrJT

Justin: Most things are going really well. Substack, as a publishing platform, meets my needs, the early subscriber numbers have been encouraging, and I’m not having any problems with content generation.

The biggest challenge, which I’ve discussed previously, is creating a better work/life balance. I’ve established a routine and expectations for this season, so I’m going to stick to those for the sake of consistency, with a plan to re-evaluate my content strategy in the offseason.

This week, I’m probably sitting at 50-55 hours as I write this mailbag, have a flight to Houston in a couple of hours, an 11-12 hour game day shift tomorrow and a 5:20 a.m. flight back home rolling into the same routine.

You’d think that’s not sustainable, but I've been doing something close to this for more than a decade. That said, there are stretches in this profession where you need to power through burnout, physically and mentally. I haven’t hit one yet since launching the platform, but recognize it could potentially be more difficult to power out of one on my own.

Q: How have PFF grades compared to your own film study? — Justin Conlon

Justin: Outside of Goff, where I don’t think their system is equipped to effectively grade masterful game management at the quarterback position, the offensive marks line up reasonably well with what I’ve seen.

Defensively, as noted above, they’re higher on Campbell’s coverage than I am. They’re also probably a little lower on Amik Robertson and Josh Paschal than I would be, but that’s more gut feeling than anything. I don’t have a data-driven counter for the grade of either player.

Q: If you’re wearing the hat of the opposing team, how do you stop the Lions offense? — Minki

Justin: It doesn’t matter what you do if you don’t have the talent. Generically speaking, I’d feel the need to rush with four and drop seven as much as possible. I’m probably playing more man than zone, even if that takes my corners' eyes out of the backfield, and shifting between Cover-1 and Cover-2 depending on down-and-distance, using early downs to creep that extra piece into the box as either run support or a coverage bracket on St. Brown or Sam LaPorta. In those looks, I’m almost always shading the deeper safety to Jameson Williams’ side of the field.

If I have the personnel to do it, I’m playing more zone in the red zone. The condensed spacing naturally helps tighten the windows. Tampa Bay showed us what a disciplined zone team can do to make life hell on opposing offenses, even one as potent as Detroit.

Of course, everything starts with stopping the run against the Lions. It would probably help to have a two-gapping front and versatile linebackers who can get downhill and capably fill behind the line, but are athletic enough to quickly recover to the proper depth in play-action situations or pick up David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs in man coverage when they leak out of the backfield.

Lastly, I'm going to pray.

Q: What are the players' attitudes towards the international games? — Darren Byrne

Justin: I haven’t had to cover one in a decade, so I’m not able to give you firsthand accounts. But I can tell you that most players enjoy routine and international games tend to disrupt that. Additionally, there are playing surface concerns and tax implications, since players are subject to local taxes.

That said, big picture, international games are significant revenue generators for the league, which improves the bottom line for owners and trickles down to the steadily increasing salary cap for players.

Q: How much more fun is it to cover a winning team instead of the same old Lions? Are you turning into a fan? Just a little? — JW

Justin: I’m a fan of quality football. It’s better to cover consistently good football than consistently poor football. The interactions with fans are also better. You’re excited and I’m excited for you.

Q: Can you do a deeper dive with Terrion Arnold's progress? He seems to have gotten rid of the penalties while still keeping pretty sticky coverage. — BWR

Justin: You’re correct, Arnold has sharply cut down on actions that were generating holding and pass interference penalties. That’s positive growth. But, overall, I’d contend he’s still a below-average cornerback with a lot of room for improvement in coverage.

That's not a surprising assessment for a first-year defender who won't celebrate his 22nd birthday until March.

The thing that stands out when watching Arnold’s films is his reaction times are often slow. That includes how he addresses route concepts while playing zone and the late usage of his hands to disrupt the throw when he has tighter man coverage.

That’s experience, not athleticism. He’s still learning how players and schemes are attacking him, so the instincts built through seeing it over and over haven't fully developed yet.

There should be a significant jump in Year 2, and if he keeps banking reps at this rate, we might be talking about one of the better young corners in the league in 2026.

Q: How do you find a balance between reporting news about the players and team, with adding your own opinion on things? — Steven Klobucarich

Justin: It’s about being measured and fair. That extends to tone when asking questions. As long as you don’t make it personal while striving to be accurate and fair with your reporting and criticism, you won’t run into many problems.

Q: Why did we cut Isaiah Williams? — Trainer Mike Ward

Justin: He was the low man on the totem pole.

I get it, Williams had a really exciting preseason, and he made a good impression with his work ethic, including the serious approach he took to his work on the scout team. Still, he was a redundant roster piece behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond, who remain under contract for years beyond this season. The lack of special teams contributions beyond kickoff returning sealed Williams' fate when the team needed a spot.

Q: LaPorta is on pace for just over half the catches he had last season.  I'm curious about your take on what's led to such a significant drop in his involvement in the passing game? — Nick Olah

Justin: Let’s start by re-establishing context. The Lions are operating differently as an offense this season, running the ball at a higher clip, requiring Goff to throw less. This season, LaPorta is seeing 12.3% of the targets in the passing game, compared to 19.8% last year. Even framing it that way, the decline in usage is real and significant.

But why?

First, it should be acknowledged that a training camp injury likely played a role in the sluggish start, especially during the first few games. But where are Goff’s passes going this year that they weren’t in 2023?

Honestly, it’s a little of everywhere. The most notable jump has been Williams’ role in the offense, doubling his target share from a year ago. But that was to be expected with Josh Reynolds’ departure. Still, Williams/Patrick/Raymond in 2024 compared to Reynolds/Williams/Raymond last season are netting 5% more of the pie.

Additionally, St. Brown is up close to 1% and Montgomery has gone from 4% to 8.5%.

That's all to say the ball is being distributed differently, and because Detroit’s offense has been as good as ever, currently ranking No. 1 in the league, it shouldn’t matter. I don’t think anyone would tell you that LaPorta is suddenly a worse player.

Q: What are the odds we re-sign Carlton Davis? Is he under contract for next season? — Philip Fracassi

Justin: Davis is not under contract after 2024.

Optimistically, it's a coin flip, but realistically, probably under 50%. He’s been their best corner this season, a strong fit not just on the field, but in the locker room, and just this week he told me how much he’s enjoying playing for this coaching staff. Still, as we discussed above, cap space is becoming a concern and his next deal could cost around $18-20 million per season, based on market rates.

Another factor to consider is the Lions have Ennis Rakestraw developing behind the scenes and waiting in the wings.