DFN Lions Mailbag: A big batch of questions for the postseason bye week

Welcome to a bye-week edition of the mailbag.

Q: Do you think the defense has enough left in the tank to play like they did against Minnesota for three more games? — Steve Londeau

Justin: Do the Lions have enough on defense to get to the Super Bowl? Absolutely. Are they going to consistently hold playoff-caliber opponents under 10 points and go 100% in the red zone? Probably not.

But let’s look at the levels of the unit. Up front, Za’Darius Smith, DJ Reader and Levi Onwuzurike are unquestionably starting-caliber talent. In the second level, Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell are a pair of high-quality, three-down linebackers. And in the back end, most teams would kill for a safety collective like Detroit’s, which includes the versatile Ifeatu Melifonwu.

Are there soft spots with the personnel? Absolutely. Josh Paschal is relatively one-dimensional, not offering a ton as a pass-rusher. And Terrion Arnold is still prone to some rookie mistakes, even though they’ve whittled with a season’s worth of experience. Perhaps the biggest concern is the depth, which remains depleted from all the injuries (although it’s easy to appreciate what Al-Quadin Muhammad has brought down the stretch).

That said, every team has weaknesses. Detroit’s reliable pieces on defense are enough to produce adequate results. As long as the offense and special teams live up to their standard, the Lions should be OK.

Q: In light of Alex Anzalone’s return from a broken forearm, what about Marcus Davenport? — Sam Chiodo

Justin: They're different injuries. Davenport had a triceps tendon tear that required surgery. There are varying degrees to that injury, and I can’t speak to the extent of his, but recovery can take up to a year in some cases, according to available medical documentation.

In late November, Davenport was still wearing a brace designed to limit his range of motion. Even if he gets medically cleared between now and the Super Bowl, how strong will the arm be? Remember, he's a guy who leans on his bull rush and long arm as his go-to moves.

I know he was hopeful to get back this year. There’s nothing wrong with optimism and viewing the world as a glass half full. But, realistically, it’s not happening.

Q: Do you think the Lions playing more nickel on Sunday was specific to the Vikings matchup or something they’ll lean into moving forward? — Dhani Bowtie

Justin: There will be situations where a linebacker is the right schematic choice ahead of Melifonwu, but I’m convinced the Lions see the combination of Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph and Melifonwu sharing the field as much as possible gives them the best chance to win.

Q: Setting aside storylines, could you rank the potential Divisional round opponents, in terms of potential challenge for the Lions? — ML

Justin: In my opinion, the best to worst-case for the Lions would go: Green Bay, Washington, Rams, Vikings.

Typically, you don’t want to see a divisional opponent a third time, but the Packers have repeatedly struggled against quality opponents this year, Jordan Love is the worst-performing quarterback from that group of teams, and the Packers have lost some key pieces to season-ending injury in Jaire Alexander and Christian Watson.

With Washington, Jayden Daniels is a dynamic, dual-threat force who has the potential to quickly develop into the conference’s best quarterback, but he’s still a rookie. Plus, the Commanders’ defense is shaky.

The Rams — for as ferocious a competitor as Matthew Stafford continues to be — have struggled offensively the past two months outside of a 44-point explosion against Buffalo. If the Lions put up 27 points, which they did each of their final five games, it would likely be enough.

The Vikings rematch is intimidating because of their coaching. Yes, the Lions just smashed them, but I trust Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores to make game-plan adjustments better than most coaches in the NFL. Plus, Sam Darnold isn’t likely to miss as many open throws as he did in Week 18. That’s a team loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. They didn’t win 14 games this year by accident.

Q: What's your favorite football movie? — Jeff Zyla

Justin: This is an enormous blind spot for me. There are so many classics I haven’t seen, including Rudy, Remember the Titans, Varsity Blues and Friday Night Lights. I know, it’s bad.

The only one I can remember watching is The Replacements. Yes, it was corny, but it came out when I was fresh out of high school, so the humor probably connected. I’m scared to rewatch it. I can’t imagine it has held up well.

Q: Who manages the AP voter docket and how would a writer (you) get added? — Bo Schmitz

Justin: I honestly don’t know. There’s likely a national sports editor at the Associated Press overseeing the panel. I’d never campaign for inclusion. They already have an excellent group of voters, many with national experience and better in touch with the entire league. Plus, I know what Dave Birkett puts into the responsibility, as the local voice.

Q: Are you still planning to add video to your podcasts? If so, what’s your timeline? — John Figulski

Justin: John, the podcast production is out of my control. I lean into allowing Audacy to handle that because my plate is already overflowing.

I do know the podcast is recorded on video each week. Where that file goes is a reasonable question. I’ll ask around.

Q: With Aaron Glenn likely gone, how much could the defensive scheme change under someone like Terrell Williams or Kelvin Sheppard? Would we have the personnel to fit their new schemes or would they try to replicate what Glenn has done? — Chris Welter

Justin: Any good coach crafts/modifies a scheme around their personnel. Each year under Glenn, the Lions have morphed into something slightly different. He has changed the way his front attacks, how the linebackers play, and altered the reliance on zone/man coverage calls to best fit the roster. What hasn’t changed is his identity. He wants to be aggressive, which marries with the philosophies of head coach Dan Campbell.

If Campbell has to replace Glenn — which I’m sure he’s braced to do — he’ll promote or bring in someone who views the game through the same philosophical lens, has a malleable scheme, and is a strong teacher.

Q: In the offseason, what kind of content do you want to produce? — Charlie Campbell IV

Justin: I have the formulations of a loose plan, and when we reach the early stages of the offseason, I’ll reveal that to the community. There are many built-in pillars to cover leading up to the start of training camp. In reality, the NFL’s offseason is only five weeks, from mid-June to late-July.

For reference, there is the post-mortem of the previous season, Senior Bowl, the scouting combine, free agency, owners meetings, the draft, schedule release, OTAs and mandatory minicamp. I have things I’ve done in the past that I’ll bring here and some fresh ideas to evolve those coverage strategies.

And, of course, I’ll take the community’s input throughout the process. The ultimate goal is creating content you want to read.

Q: Top 10 things to do on a day off? — John R. Ehlke

Justin: You want a list of 10? No chance.

Days off are so few and far between July through February that I often spend them doing errands. My wife shoulders so much of the load during the season that it’s only right I handle the grocery shopping or whatever else needs to be done around the house.

When it’s warm, and I have more time to plan, I prefer to be outdoors. Depending on how much time I have, a round of golf (or disc golf) is always a joy. When it’s colder, dinner and a movie are a reliable option. Trying new restaurants is one of our favorite activities.

Q: Is Kerby Joseph a candidate for a big extension? Branch is likely a year away. Can the team afford two safeties making top dollar? — Robert Honeyman

Justin: Is he a candidate? Absolutely. How could he not be? He’s been everything the team had hoped for from a playmaking perspective, intercepting at least four passes each season. He’s made steady improvements extending beyond the takeaways. His commitment to bettering his tackling speaks volumes about his football character. And he’s presented no problems off the field. What more could you want?

You’re right, the financial conversations are going to start getting tricky for the Lions, at some point. Joseph’s baseline is going to be the four-year, $67 million contract ($23 million guaranteed) Xavier McKinney got from the Packers this offseason.

Can they afford to pay both Joseph and Branch? Probably. It’s all about what you prioritize with your cap spending. But that does mean the roster will have to be cheaper somewhere else. That might eventually require the replacement of Taylor Decker, Anzalone or other veteran pieces with draft picks on cheap rookie deals. That’s how these things work.

Q: I'm curious about mouthguards. What are the NFL/NFLPA rules and what do the players think about them? — AntiTrustCrumbler

Justin: There are no NFL requirements regarding mouthguards, only recommendations. Some studies have suggested a reduction in concussions for players who wear them, but the league views that data as inconclusive.

Q: Can you revisit your initial thoughts on Campbell's intro press conference? — Jamelle Cooper

Justin: Despite not always publicly presenting it, I would classify myself as an optimist. Or, at the very least, I like to give people a chance to prove themselves before passing judgment.

I remember Campbell’s introductory press conference being informative, passionate and colorful. I tweeted something like this is what winning a press conference looks like, while also acknowledging winning a press conference means very little.

I also recall being annoyed that all anyone wanted to talk about in the days and weeks after was the “kneecap” bit. Every out-of-market radio interview I did for the next year brought it up. At some level I understood — it was graphic, colorful and interesting — but he talked for nearly an hour and had a lot of other interesting points suggesting he might be cut out for this daunting job. Campbell’s genuineness jumped off the screen. Remember, we were in the Zoom era for the presser, sadly.

I have plans for a larger revisiting of that press conference sometime soon. Stay tuned.

Q: What is the typical week/day for the coaches? When do they develop specific plays/strategies for teams vs honing basic plays/skills? Does this change as the season goes on? — Mark Brauning

Justin: Let’s start after the completion of a game. Coaches immediately begin to process the tape of that game for Monday meetings and corrections. Monday night and Tuesday are preparing for the next opponent, using tape study combined with the work done by the advanced scouting department to craft a game plan. Position coaches often divide work based on specialties, such as studying blitz packages or red-zone strategies. They write and present reports to the rest of the staff based on their film observations.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are the installation of the game plan in segments. Specific days are committed to early downs, third downs, red zone, and situational football. That’s implemented through classroom work, a daily walkthrough and practice.

There are a ton of meetings during the week. Some are coaches only, many are with position groups, and others are sides of the ball, special teams and full-team sessions. The film study never really stops. If there’s downtime for a coach, it’s during windows on Friday and Saturday nights, but many grind right through that because they struggle with work-life balance and the fear of being outworked by a colleague or the competition.

The 12-18 hour days are real. The 80-plus-hour work weeks are also real. It’s a brutal job, in-season, and reserved for individuals who are passionate and hard-working.

Player development never stops, but most fundamental work is done during the offseason. Younger players continue to get extra film time and pre- and post-practice work with some of the assistant position coaches, guys like Steve Oliver, Cam Davis and Jim O'Neil.

Q: Projecting ahead a few months, where do you see Hendon Hooker fitting into their long-term plans? Would a trade make sense, and could they get more than the third-round pick they spent on him? — Jeff Koski

Justin: I don't understand the fascination with trading Hooker. As noted above, the Lions have significant resources tied up in many roster spots. It’s beneficial to have a cheap backup QB, as opposed to a higher-end veteran that typically run around $8 million per season.

Does Hooker hope to be a starter someday? Hopefully. That should be every NFL player's ambition. But there’s plenty of value in developing a reliable backup in case your starter gets hurt. Was Hooker all the way there this year? No, not in his first full season. But even through one training camp/preseason, you could see tremendous strides. He should be even better next year, reducing the need to bring in a Teddy Bridgewater at the end of the season — although there’s value in having a third, emergency QB on a playoff roster.

If the Lions traded Hooker today, they’re not getting back the investment. Maybe a sixth-rounder. Maybe. Malik Willis brought back a seventh. Justin Fields, a sixth. Mac Jones, a sixth. Despite the value Lions fans have assigned to Hooker, it’s not more than those players.

Q: Is DPJ still on practice squad? — Prashant dixit

Justin: Yes. Why? I’m not sure.

Q: You have mentioned Gibbs and Montgomery are envisioned as this offense’s version of Kamara and Ingram. How does Jared Goff compare to Drew Brees in this offense? — Dave Reimink

Justin: There are some similarities in the sense both are pocket passers, smart, and driven, but Brees’ precision and accuracy were unparalleled.

Goff is trending toward a stellar career. It's been encouraging to see continued improvements in areas he was considered deficient as a young player. But Brees is a lock for the Hall of Fame because of his otherworldly production and consistency.

Q: You wrote an awesome article on Chris Spielman last season. What kind of experience has he received that lends itself to him being potentially ready for his own GM role now that its been reported that he's getting interviews? — Benjamin Walker

Justin: First and foremost, Spielman understands what it takes to build a strong culture. That extends from his playing days, both at Ohio State and the NFL, to his time around top executives as a broadcaster, to actually doing the work behind the scenes in Detroit, starting before Campbell and Holmes were hired.

Spielman was part of the committee that helped make those leadership hires, and he has access to every person in the building, siphoning knowledge of the various processes that go into building a winner.

Is he an elite talent scout? No. But does he understand how to work collaboratively with those who are while utilizing his skills and experience to identify strong football character? Sure. Can he motivate and lead? Absolutely.

What qualifies him now more than four years ago is how much time he’s spent gaining knowledge in all facets of running an organization, particularly one that rose from the bottom to the top of the league. If he was hired by an organization, his success would still hinge on who he surrounds himself with in his front office. You won’t go far without strong college scouting and pro personnel directors.

Q: Has Amik done enough at outside corner to save money and pass on re-signing Carlton Davis III? — James Pollock

Justin: It’s a valid question and the type of cap decision facing Holmes this offseason. Ideally, Arnold would take a developmental jump in his second season and be more prepared to serve as the team’s No. 1 corner. Robertson has enough talent, and more than enough moxie, to be a full-time No. 2. And that potentially opens up the nickel slot for Ennis Rakestraw.

From there, you add depth in free agency and the draft and let the depth chart be sorted through competition.