A deep dive into stats defining Lions' 3-1 start at the bye

Allen Park — Among the downsides of an early-season bye is the four-game sample size doesn't provide enough information for a comprehensive evaluation. But we’re prisoners of circumstance, so we push forward with the available data.

The Detroit Lions are off Week 5 of the NFL season. And with a 3-1 record at their scheduled break, they’re in good shape as pursue improving on last year's trip to the NFC Championship game.

With some downtime to reflect, let’s pour through the numbers and explore the statistics that have led the Lions to this position.

20.5 points / 31.7% third-down percentage / 58.3 red zone efficiency

To take the next step, the Lions needed to improve defensively. Through four games, they’ve made the necessary strides, most notably with the points they’re allowing.

Despite a hiccup in their last game, allowing 29 to the Seattle Seahawks (two via a safety), Detroit has trimmed opponent scoring by 11.6%, ranking top 10 heading into Sunday’s slate of games.

Multiple factors have gone into that, but improvements on third down and in the red zone are notable. Detroit was respectable on third down in 2023, but has been even better this year, ranking 10th in conversion percentage. Plus, they’ve been equally sharp in limited fourth-down situations, forcing a turnover on four of six tries.

In the red zone, the Lions are still giving up too many touchdowns. Opponents are coming away with six on 58.3% of trips. That’s middle of the pack, but decidedly better than the 65.6% success rate allowed last season, which ranked 30th.

34% vs. 23% coverage rate

We’ve been told the personnel changes at cornerback have allowed defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to lean into his preference for more man-to-man coverage, but thanks to data tracked by Fantasy Points, we can quantify the change.